The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting that U.S. retail sales from 1 November to 31 December will increase anywhere from 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent year over year to between USD 1.1 trillion (EUR 950 million) and USD 1.2 trillion (EUR 1 trillion).
“We are bullish about spending this holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said during a 6 November media call announcing the organization’s annual holiday forecast, adding that this is the first time holiday sales are expected to surpass USD 1 trillion (EUR 865 billion).
Consumers plan to spend USD 890 (EUR 760) per person on average for holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items, according to NRF’s 2025 holiday survey, marking the second-highest amount in the survey’s 23-year history.
Tariffs, a federal government shutdown, inflation, and other economic concerns have led to Americans trading down and seeking more value wherever they can, but spending during the holiday season typically has a “moat” around it, according to Shay.
“People save for it, they plan for it … and prioritize it,” he said. “On holiday weekends throughout this year, spending was at record or near record levels compared to last year.”
In addition to spending on gifts, Americans will likely be willing to spend money on groceries for their holiday gatherings this year, DNR Sales and Marketing Strategy Advisors President Jason Resner told SeafoodSource.
“Seafood should particularly see an increase this year as long as retailers do not shy away from advertised promotions due to the retail being higher,” Resner said. "Although overall volume will be down, the increased sales will unfortunately be driven via inflation on both regular retails as well as promotional.”
Retailers should also benefit from the importance of home-centric holiday celebrations, which are likely to be a preferential money-saving measure among U.S. consumers this year, according to 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink.
“Lower- and middle-income consumers will likely focus on further money-saving measures, such as doing a bit more of the work themselves [instead of] time-saving shortcuts and perhaps focus on the main menu,” she said.
Roerink added that a possible resolution to the federal government shutdown and a return to normalcy of funding distribution under the country’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would further help consumers shop for the holidays.
“The next week or two will be crucial, with hopefully a reopening of the government and getting SNAP dollars in the hands of those who need help the most,” she said.
The NRF also emphasized the importance of a resolution to the continuing government shutdown, which it said has been “particularly challenging just before the holiday season.”
“Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts,” NRF said in a press release.
Despite economic concerns, Americans’ wages continue to grow at a steady pace.
“Wages have now exceeded inflation for over 30 months,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said, adding that while unemployment has increased slightly, it remains at relatively low levels.
The positive metrics helped U.S. retail sales shoot up 5 percent unadjusted year over year in October, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
“Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid – supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations,” Shay said in a release.
This has resulted in “positive engagement from consumers,” Shay said.
"That is somewhat of a surprise; that is a testament due to the creative work of retailers to avoid passing on price increases [from tariffs],” he said.
