Uncertain economy mutes US Independence Day sales expectations

A July 4 celebration in the U.S.

Three-quarters of those planning celebrations for U.S. Independence Day on 4 July are looking for ways to save money, dampening hopes for robust holiday seafood sales.

Food will figure in celebrations around the country, with 83 percent of celebrators planning to make a purchase for the holiday, but 17 percent of that group expects inflation to have a significant impact on their shopping. An additional 23 percent said it will have a moderate impact and 34 percent said it will have a slight impact, according to an April 2023 survey of 2,600 U.S. consumers completed by data and tech firm Numerator.

Of the 87 percent of U.S. consumers who plan to celebrate Independence Day this year – up from 84 percent in 2022 – 58 percent said they plan on grilling or barbequing and 46 percent said they were hosting or attending a party.

Seafood did not rank in the top five food items being sought out by shoppers – a list that was instead filled out by burgers, hot dogs, deli salads, vegetable trays, and potato chips.

Numerator found 77 percent of Independence Day celebrators are looking for ways to save money, such as by buying items on sale (52 percent), preparing budget-friendly foods (31 percent), using more coupons (27 percent), shopping at dollar stores (20 percent), and switching to store brands (16 percent).

Despite Numerator’s findings of broad concerns with affordability due to inflation, household spending on Independence Day celebrations is expected to increase almost 11 percent this year to USD 93.34 (EUR 85.55), up from USD 84.12 (EUR 77.10) in 2022 and USD 80.54 (EUR 73.82) in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.

NRF estimated total consumer spending on Fourth of July celebrations to reach USD 9.5 billion (EUR 8.7 billion) in 2023, up from USD 7.7 billion (EUR 7.1 billion) in 2022 and USD 7.5 billion (EUR 9.9 billion) in 2021.

U.S. consumers are being helped by a slower pace of inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose 4 percent over the 12-month period ending in May, the lowest level since March 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 13 July. Gas prices were down 5.6 percent month-over-month, and while prices for food at home were up 5.8 percent over the 12-month period, that was below the 13.5 percent rate recorded in August 2022.

Photo courtesy of Romolo Tavani/Shutterstock

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