The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is projecting another strong year for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishing in 2023.
Following a record-breaking 2022, the ADFG is forecasting a run of 51 million sockeye. Although that’s a 35 percent decrease from this year’s catch, next year’s estimate is still projected to be among the top five strongest in the last 20 years, and 40 percent greater than the average annual run recorded since 1963.
Since 2001, the ADFG has on average underforecast the Bristol Bay run by 14 percent, ranging from 44 percent below the actual run in 2014, to overprojecting 2011’s run by 19 percent.
“It’s a much lower forecast than what we had this year, but it’s not a small forecast,” said Andy Wink, executive director of the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association (BBRSDA). “It will be nice to get back to that level at which the market is used to seeing come out of [Bristol] Bay.”
With a lower forecast but another year of strong supply expected, Wink said buyers will have more information to work with in marketing the harvest. Wild fisheries can typically struggle with producing reliable forecasts, but he said Bristol Bay fishery managers have managed to produce reliable estimates in recent years.
“Forecasters have been very accurate over the years,” he said. “It gives the supply chain more visibility.”
Recent data published by the Bristol Bay Fishermen’s Association recorded an ex-vessel price of USD 1.15 (EUR 1.11) per pound of sockeye for the 2022 harvest, which hit a record 79 million fish, topping the pre-season forecast of 73.4 million.
“Certainly can’t complain about more fish, and 2022 was incredible,” Wink said.
Wink said the strong U.S. dollar has made domestic markets more attractive to sell the massive harvest, with sales promotions in retail and at dining establishments ongoing.
“It will take a lot of effort to get the fish to consumers,” he said. “We need more people eating more sockeye, more often.”
Alaska Fish News Analyst Laine Welch said Alaska’s overall salmon harvest across all species in 2022 declined 31 percent compared to 2021, while dockside value increased by nearly 12 percent to USD 720.4 million (EUR 699.1 million).
Sockeye represented 47 percent of the state’s harvest total with a record value of USD 473.8 million (EUR 459.8 million), according to preliminary data published by the ADFG.
The decrease in overall catch from 2021 was due to a relatively low run for pink salmon at 69.1 million fish, with a total value of USD 102.2 million (EUR 99.1 million).
Photo courtesy of Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association
