The Alaska summer salmon catch has surpassed 205 million fish, surpassing the preseason prediction of 190 million fish by eight percent. The strong totals are driven by sockeye and pink salmon harvests, both of which have outstripped their preseason forecast by around 10 percent.
The large number of sockeye, however, could be a bit misleading when it comes to volume, according to McKinley Research Group consultant Dan Lesh. In his weekly Alaska salmon update, Lesh pointed out that while Bristol Bay saw a run of 66 million sockeye – the most since recording started in 1893 – the average size of the sockeye was just 4.65 pounds. The smaller size is in line with a recent string of larger runs of smaller fish in the Bristol Bay, but the 4.65 pounds is the lightest average weight since 1979.
“When accounting for smaller fish, estimated Bristol Bay sockeye harvest volume is the lowest since 2014 at 187.6 million pounds. Tight supplies are being reported as a result,” Lesh said.
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada-based frozen seafood seller Tradex Foods confirmed on 2 September that salmon inventories were scarce despite the high harvest numbers. Tradex’s Rochelle Reierson said sockeye had sold out quickly.
“Processors are even buying on the open market to ensure products for their programs and with that, taking purchase orders in advance of fishing and pricing is subject to catch,” Reierson said in Tradex’s 3-Minute Market Insight.
Lesh added that a similar weight reading can be made with pink salmon in Southeast Alaska. According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), Southeast Alaska was expected to see a harvest of over 42 million pink salmon this season, which puts the region on course for the largest harvest since 2013. The 2.9-pound average for pinks, however, is historically low, and would mean the harvest volume for 2021 is lower than 2014, 2015, and 2017, according to Lesh.
Prince William Sound had a harvest of over 60 million pink salmon as of last week, which ADFG reported was the third-largest harvest in the region in a decade. Biologists thought drought conditions in the 2019 parent class may have negatively affected spawning, but the run is stronger than anticipated in Prince William Sound. More than 124 million pink salmon had been caught total as of 27 August.
Keta, chinook, and coho salmon, meanwhile, were all lagging behind their preseason forecasts.
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