Rabobank: Prices to remain high for salmon in 2023, but will bottom out for shrimp

Rabobank Senior Global Seafood Specialist Gorjan Nikolik.

Farmed salmon is continuing to show its market resilience, and despite some easing of demand in Europe and the United States, prices will remain high in the first half of this year, albeit at lower levels than the peak seen in the corresponding period of 2022, according new analysis from the RaboResearch unit of Rabobank.

The bank’s report, “Global Aquaculture Update H1 2023,” compiled by Rabobank Senior Global Seafood Specialist Gorjan Nikolik, found in spite of the “recessionary behavior” seen in both the retail and foodservice sectors in the United States and Europe, steady demand for salmon, combined with tight supply, will likely lead to high prices in the first six months of 2023, and potentially beyond.

Rabobank is predicting 2 percent growth in global salmon supply in H1 2023, which is up from the corresponding period of 2022.

The Norwegian government’s proposed additional 40 percent tax on salmon farmers, on top of the existing 22 percent corporate tax, has brought some uncertainty to the global salmon market.. If this tax remains in place, it could have significant consequences for the sector in terms of overall salmon supply and prices, Nikolik told SeafoodSource.

“The Norwegian growth rate will be reduced, perhaps by 50 percent. This will initially support prices. But it will also support alternative supply, thus the high prices will correct in the long-term,” he said.

In a previous report issued in early January, Rabobank predicted global salmon production will increase by an estimated 4 percent in both 2023 and 2024, nearing 3 million metric tons (MT) in 2023 and then surpassing that total in 2024. Cumulative supply growth for Norway and Chile between 2022 to 2024 is expected to drop to 3.1 percent, compared with the previous decade’s 7 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

However, the bank’s updated forecast suggested global seafood demand has ... 

Photo courtesy of Global Seafood Alliance

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