Rising incomes and changing attitudes to health are creating structural changes in the Chinese diet favoring seafood over pork, long China’s favorite meat protein, according to a Shanghai-based analyst of meat and other agricultural commodities.
Wholesale pork prices have dropped 54 percent in August in China, back to levels seen before the African swine flu pandemic decimated China’s pig herd, beginning in 2018. Yet Chinese consumers have moved on to other proteins, sinking pork prices further, said Darin Friedrichs, a commodities analyst at the Shanghai offices of StoneX (formerly known as INTL FCStone).
“Asian swine flu drove prices up and that led to consumers diversifying into other products and led to some long-term changes in diet. But there is definitely a health aspect to it. Younger consumers are more health focused, and there’s also a trend towards higher incomes leading to different consumption patterns,” he told SeafoodSource.
Friedrichs pointed to 2018 studies by the China Agriculture University and published in the People’s Daily, which suggested that a 1 percent increase in average Chinese individual incomes triggered an increase of 2.43 percent in the consumption of slightly more-expensive poultry meat. The study quoted Han Yijun, head of the university’s Agriculture Prices Monitoring Research Center, who said that the low protein content and high fat content of pork will further reduce consumer demand for pork in the future. By contrast, the demand for beef, mutton, and white meat – including fish – will continue to increase, Han said.
Friedrichs sees long-term logistical challenges for inbound shipments.
“Seafood is going to face import challenges,” he said. “Imports of aquaculture products seem to be testing positive for coronavirus on packaging and leading to suspension more often than other products. Just today, there are more official announcements of the need to strengthen testing and disinfection of imported cold-chain products. This seems like a problem that is going to be around for the foreseeable future.”
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