The weather phenomenon known as El Niño has already been warming ocean temperatures this year, and scientists are warning that converging forces are more likely than not going to result in a “Super” El Niño.
Before that happens, however, the weather pattern has already affected global seafood sectors.
Peru has indefinitely paused anchovy fishing due to a high presence of juveniles brought on by warmer ocean temperatures.
In nearby Chile, the nation’s salmon sector is preparing for the looming threat of toxic algal blooms that could squeeze the margins of aquaculture firms even further.
In India, the nation’s fishing industry is preparing for a weak sardine and mackerel season, while the nation’s aquaculture sector has been urged to prepare for possible disruptions, such as sudden heavy rainfall after extended periods of high temperature and salinity levels, with the latter particularly impacting coastal fish-farming operations.
Wired reported that fisheries in South and Latin America are suffering as the migration patterns of bluefin tuna, swordfish, and marlin have shifted further from the equator toward fisheries like those in Southern California, which have profited in turn.
“El Niño’s fuse has been lit, and we don’t have much time to prepare,” Ocean Conservancy Senior Fellow of Fisheries Economics and Climate Anthony Rogers said. “The 2016 El Niño was bad, but this is shaping up to be worse: Temperatures are up, the seafood economy is down, and disaster relief still has the same problems it did then.”
Impacts on global seafood sectors are expected to escalate as a Super El Niño carries higher risks, especially for already fragile ecosystems.
“El Niño can fundamentally change whole ecosystems, and we could be headed for one of the strongest in history,” Ocean Conservancy Fisheries Policy Manager Elizabeth Cerny-Chipman said in a release. “When critical species like krill take a hit, we see starvation in animals like fish, sea lions, sea birds, and whales. But, we also see fatal behavior changes, like new migration patterns that cause whale entanglements and sea lion strandings. An El Niño this strong could upend how entire species live.”
Severe Weather Europe reported that as of 23 July, there's a 60 percent chance this year's El Niño will develop into a Super El Niño, and the effects could last through the end of the year.
"[The] latest data shows the 2026 El Niño is rapidly intensifying," Severe Weather Europe said. "Warm Pacific waters are expanding, and the new forecasts are pushing this event deeper into the Super El Niño category. Based on the latest data, this could be the strongest El Niño event in the historical record, with its atmospheric impacts already clearly visible."
The strongest effects, Severe Weather Europe reported, would likely be in the Northern Hemisphere in November and December because El Niño brings along with it an amplified Pacific jet stream, causing low-pressure systems and storms in the U.S. and precipitation and cooler weather eastward.
As a result, NOAA cautioned that algal blooms, weak salmon runs, increased whale entanglements, and more may occur as the year progresses, along with some positive outcomes like rejuvenating rockfish juvenile populations.
“Warm conditions offshore driven by marine heatwaves and compounded by El Niño press up against cool-water corridors along the coast in what is known as ‘habitat compression,’” NOAA said. “This [has] pushed whales into the same waters as hundreds of crab traps, increasing their risk of getting entangled in lines to the surface.”
Ocean Conservancy said regardless of what occurs this year, it will test the stability of fisheries around the globe.
“This is going to test how ready our fisheries are for the increasing impacts of climate change, and I worry we are going to fail,” Ocean Conservancy Vice President of Conservation Chris Dorsett said. “Healthy fish are essential for a healthy ocean. Without them, ecosystems would collapse, seafood prices would skyrocket, and coastal communities would wither. We are deeply concerned about how this year’s Super El Niño will change our ocean and what it means for fish stocks in warming waters. We can’t stop El Niño, but we must prepare for it.”
