Carp production in most major carp-producing countries is plateauing, and according to Rabobank data, it is on the verge of contracting.
Long the most-produced aquaculture species in the world, carp is dominant in China, where it is farmed in huge volumes. Based on current data, China will produce over 17 million metric tons (MT) of carp in 2024, a volume significantly higher than Europe’s total seafood consumption of 10 million MT.
That high production is stagnating across every major species – grass carp, silver carp, bighead carp, common carp, and black carp. Rabobank Global Seafood Specialist Gorjan Nikolik said current data from Rabobank, along with new survey data for the Global Seafood Alliance revealed at the Responsible Seafood Summit that took place recently in St. Andrews, Scotland, shows no growth at all across every species.
“It looks like the Chinese people are getting a bit bored with carp,” Nikolik said. “They don’t demand more of it; it’s flat. Every single expectation that we saw was either zero or 1 percent [growth]. The responses were very correlated with each other.”
Nikolik said the current expectation is the industry will begin to contract in the near future.
India, another major carp producer, is also seeing slower growth in the near future, with a minor increase of 1 percent expected in 2024. India might reach 7 million MT of production in 2025 but will likely plateau, Nikolik said.
“We’re starting to see a plateau now at 1 percent, and it’s the same in some of the other countries,” Nikolik said.
Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam are all major carp producers, and Rabobank’s data indicates almost no growth there, too.
Globally, carp production is expected to grow by just 0.5 percent in 2024, and Nikolik said the growth rate will continue to decline.
“I think we’re now waiting for when this will start to be negative,” Nikolik said.
