Global supply growth for farmed salmon is expected to slow dramatically in 2026, tightening the market just as demand – particularly from China – continues to strengthen, according to analysis presented by Pareto Securities at the 2026 edition of the North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF).
Speaking at the Bergen, Norway, conference, Pareto Securities Equity Research Analyst Henrik Knutsen said the industry is moving out of a period of exceptionally high volume growth and into a phase where pricing and margins, rather than production increases, will drive earnings.
After the global farmed salmon supply expanded by around 12 percent in 2025, growth is expected to fall to roughly 1 percent in 2026. Norway and Chile, which together account for around 80 percent of the global supply, remain the dominant producers, but both are facing increasing constraints as volumes rise from a higher base, Knutsen said.
“Our projection for [Norway’s supply growth] in 2026 is around 1 percent, with some risk on the upside," he said.
Based on a bottom-up and top-down assessment of listed companies – covering around 70 percent of Norwegian production – Pareto’s expectation is for the largest salmon farming companies to grow their volume by about 2.7 percent next year. That, Knutsen said, implies that the smaller producers would need to scale back their output for the sector to remain flat overall.
But if the smaller players instead maintain their 2025 volumes, the total Norwegian supply growth could approach 2 percent.
Coming into 2026, he acknowledged that salmon prices have initially softened, but he attributed this to a temporarily high supply in the first-quarter.
“We don't expect that to continue from Q2 and onwards, meaning that we expect prices to be above last year's level," he said.
The analysis provided at NASF showed the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States remain the largest individual markets by value, but that the growth in those regions has slowed since 2022. Over the same period, China has steadily gained market share.
Knutsen told delegates that while volumes into China surged in 2025, the longer-term trend is even more telling, highlighting that since the first North Atlantic Seafood Forum in 2006, salmon consumption in China has grown at an annual rate of around 13 percent.
After disruptions caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, demand is now back on its long-term trajectory, he said.
“I don't think it's a bold projection to say that by 2030, one out of 10 kilos produced will probably land in China," he said.
Meanwhile, with supply growth easing and demand improving, Pareto expects salmon prices to rise. It is currently forecasting a spot price of around EUR 7 (USD 6.01) per kilogram in 2026, increasing to approximately EUR 7.40 (USD 6.36) in 2027.
The price achievement is also expected to improve, with Knutsen pointing to better biological performances, supported by factors such as the new winter ulcer vaccine and shielding technologies, which have helped improve survival rates and quality.
