The global salmon sector in 2025 had to contend with severe price volatility, caused by both oversupply in key farming regions and U.S. tariffs.
The year started with precipitous drops in the price of Atlantic farmed salmon from Norway. The Norwegian sector, which helps to set global price benchmarks, saw prices falling from around NOK 120 (USD 12.52, EUR 10.52) per kilogram for fresh Atlantic salmon in January 2025 to NOK 85 (USD 8.90, EUR 7.45) per kilogram in March, marking an unprecedented price decline.
Experts attributed the drops to extremely high export volumes, which left the supply chain with a glut of salmon. In May 2025, when volumes were especially high, the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) reported that the year-over-year price of salmon had fallen by more than NOK 40 (USD 4.17, EUR 3.50) from NOK 116.68 (USD 12.22, EUR 10.23) to NOK 75.78 (USD 7.93, EUR 6.65).
At that time, NSC Seafood Analyst Paul T. Aandahl said that “better production conditions,” including low sea lice levels, had produced both “record-high export volumes for the month of May” and a “record-breaking weakening of the salmon price this year.”
Salmon industry experts have said Norway’s overall harvest increased by about 11 percent last year. NSC data suggested that while salmon’s export value for Norway did increase slightly year-over-year in 2025, rising 2 percent, it was far outpaced by export volume.
Chile and Scotland, two other key salmon-farming locales, also saw increased export volumes in the first half of the year, adding to the global price pressure.
Like Norway, Chile saw an increase in production and contracted value. Biological conditions improved as the sector recovered from algal blooms and ISA outbreaks that it had experienced in 2024, and Salmon Chile reported that total export volume for 2025 was 982,840 metric tons (MT), a 14 percent year-over-year increase.
That improved production, however, only produced a 3 percent year-over-year increase in export values, with the year’s total exports amounting to USD 6.55 billion (EUR 5.52 billion).
Scotland also experienced dramatically improved biological conditions in 2025, increasing its salmon survival rate to 99.1 percent in the first half of 2025, its highest rate since 2018 and a significant improvement on the 2024 rate of 82.3 percent. Though data for all of 2025 is not yet available, data from the first half of the year saw a 22 percent year-over-year increase, to an export value of GBP 528 million (USD 723 million, EUR 607 million). Mass tonnages for 2025 have not yet been released by the organization.
While H1 price volatility was largely related to oversupply, H2 volatility was mainly due to the United States’ new tariff program, which saw key exporting regions facing new duties to bring salmon into the market. Norwegian salmon faced a 15 percent tariff, while Scotland and Chile faced 10 percent in tariffs.
Only Canada was spared from the first round of tariffs thanks to a trade deal between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, but the nation’s plan to ban net pen farming in British Columbia by 2029 meant that major salmon farmers had begun withdrawing their investments in the region.
Tariff pressure triggered some salmon producers to diversify their export markets and many to reorganize their supply chains, causing continued price volatility throughout the second half of the year, though the dramatic declines seen in the first half were avoided.
This was the case with Norway, which has been turning increasingly to Asia.
Industry insiders gathered at the 2026 Global Seafood Market Conference said that the market should expect to see lower supply out of Norway in 2026, though they noted that there was currently high biomass in Norway’s net pens, but fewer individual fish. One possible reason for this is because China was one of the fastest growing markets for Norwegian salmon in 2025, and the focus on larger fish may be in response, as whole fish are culturally prized in the region.
At the same event, NSC CEO Christian Chramer said that, especially given uncertainty around tariffs, his organization was increasingly focused on addressing the demand of Asian countries that are becoming stronger markets for Norwegian salmon.
At the same event, NSC CEO Christian Chramer said that, especially given uncertainty around tariffs, his organization was increasingly focused on addressing the demand of Asian countries that are becoming stronger markets for Norwegian salmon.
Despite the volatility, U.S. consumers continued to value salmon and pay high prices for it.
For instance, though the value of Chile’s exports was largely stagnant, the U.S. remained a stable market for Chilean salmon. U.S. consumers, SalmonChile reported, increased the amount of Chilean salmon they purchased by 6 percent in 2025, and value climbed by 1 percent year-over-year. The U.S. was also a particularly valuable market for Scottish salmon in 2025. In August, Salmon Scotland reported that salmon farmed in the country was fetching value in the U.S. that was 110 percent higher than at the same point in 2024, rising by GBP 99 million (USD 136 million, EUR 114 million) to GBP 190 million (USD 263 million, EUR 219 million).
“With international sales approaching GBP 1 billion (USD 1.4 billion, EUR 1.2 billion), Scottish salmon continues to perform strongly on the world stage, especially in the U.S., where demand remains robust,” Salmon Scotland Chief Executive Tavish Scott said at the time.
U.S. retail data also suggested that the forces that put pressure on the global salmon market in 2025 were not diminishing the strength of the salmon brand in the U.S.
Drawing on data from Circana, Integrated Fresh, Total US, and MULO+, market research firm 210 Analytics reported that salmon was the biggest fresh seafood seller for American retailers in 2025, with USD 4.1 billion (EUR 3.5 billion) in sales, which was up 4.4 percent year-over-year. It was particularly popular during the holidays, with salmon making up nearly 50 percent of all fresh and refrigerated seafood sales in December, bringing total sales to USD 206.8 million (EUR 174.3 million) in that month, a 5.8 percent year-over-year increase.
Salmon was also, according to the same source, the second most popular frozen species in 2025 after shrimp. With USD 1.1 billion (EUR 927 million) in 2025 sales, frozen salmon was one of the fastest growing categories year-over-year, with 6.3 percent growth. Again, the holidays gave frozen salmon a significant boost, bringing in USD 74 million (EUR 62 million) in December, a significant 11.9 percent year-over-year increase.
210 Analytics President Anne-Marie Roerink said in a 2025 U.S. retail performance review that salmon prices had seen far less inflation (3.3 percent) in the U.S. than other seafood products, making it a particularly competitive choice for consumers who were increasingly worried about costs.
FMI – The Food Industry Association Vice President for Fresh Foods Rick Stein told SeafoodSource that salmon continued to succeed with U.S. consumers despite inflation because it “consistently delivers value on multiple fronts at once.”
“Shoppers view salmon as a high-quality, healthy option that offers a strong price-to-value equation, along with a positive and familiar shopping and eating experience,” he said.
While Roerink noted that there are “still a lot of consumers who believe preparing seafood is hard,” she agreed with Stein that salmon’s “versatility and ease of preparation add convenience, reinforcing [its] appeal and encouraging both new and repeat buyers to confidently add it to their carts.
Additionally, salmon appealed to younger consumers in the U.S. in 2025, with Roerink noting that “salmon remains one of the most frequent searches in relation to the air fryer, a very popular cooking appliance among Gen Z and millennials in particular.”
“Salmon is also a frequent feature in ready-to-cook dishes, typically displayed in the deli department. These dishes have done a terrific job providing solutions for a quick and relatively inexpensive lunch,” Roerink said.
Roerink added that salmon had been incredibly successful at building a brand for U.S. consumers, capitalizing on many of their needs at once. She pointed out salmon aligned perfectly with trends toward healthy eating of whole proteins in the U.S., which many believe are likely to continue to shape consumer behavior in 2026.
Salmon’s accessibility has also benefited from a years-long branding campaign, which has succeeded in giving salmon the nation’s “highest household penetration with restaurant foodservice, driving familiarity with the taste and texture of salmon,” Roerink said.
