The U.S. market for pasteurized crab meat in 2025 will largely come down to whether some of the main exporters of the products are hit by tariffs, according to a panel of experts at the Global Seafood Market Conference (GSMC).
According to data presented during the GSMC shellfish panel, crab meat imports to the U.S. have remained relatively stable for the past 10 years at slightly lower than 60 million pounds. For the past year the market was largely influenced by demand dips, which Supreme Crab & Seafood Chief Executive Officer Troy Turkin attributed to inflationary pressures.
“Certainly crab being as expensive as it is, it’s going to be the first, or at least one of the earlier things, that people are going to reduce purchasing,” Turkin said.
Monthly imports of pasteurized and fresh crab have remained relatively stable in 2023 and 2024, with a cyclical effect of brief rises and falls.
According to Turkin the biggest factor facing the market will be how tariffs will be divided between countries in Southeast Asia and what countries are targeted.
“Tariffs are still going to play an impact, and none of us know what that’s going to be,” Turkin said. “It’s certainly a little worrying regarding what’s going to happen with China and Vietnam, since red swimming crab is only produced in those two nations.”
Turkin said the price gap between blue swimming crab and red swimming crab has been narrowing in recent years, with red swimming crab pricing ticking up slightly to come near USD 25 (EUR 22.81) per pound in 2024. That price gap could narrow even further if tariffs hit Vietnam – which has become a big part of the U.S. supply of the product.
“China hasn’t been doing great; volumes have been very flat,” Turkin said.
Vietnam, while its doing well, can’t make up fully for Chinese exports to the U.S. – which means if China and Vietnam are both hit with tariffs, the market for the product could be complicated.
“What’s going to happen with tariffs and what’s going to happen regarding some of the other things going on that we’ve heard about today is going to really impact that market,” Turkin said.
While the red swimming crab market is still uncertain, Turkin predicted blue swimming crab will remain relatively stable. The vast majority of the product – roughly 27 million pounds – is sourced year round from Indonesia with periodic peaks in December and January through June and July.
“That’s almost half of the total exports to the U.S. for that species,” Turkin said. “They’re anticipating a pretty steady year.”
Turkin said for buyers looking to purchase blue swimming crab, the question is always “when’s the right time to buy?” But the market dynamics are hard to take advantage of.
“If everybody in this room is trying to buy in the summer, you’re to get one order at a good price, and then you’re going to see the market go up because it’s going to total change the dynamics,” Turkin said. “You want to take a steady look at the full season.”
