A strengthening El Niño and the effects of climate change are likely to push down catches of oil sardines in India, the country’s Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) has predicted.
According to forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Indian Meteorological Department, El Niño is expected to strengthen during the coming seasons. El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon the creates warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The combined effects of El Niño and climate change raising water temperatures will likely mean India’s oil sardine stocks will “suffer a major setback,” according to CMFRI.
“Stocks in Kerala waters may be severely affected, leading to a substantial drop in catch,” CMFRI said.
India’s total take of oil sardines hit an all-time low of 46,000 metric tons in 2016, following a strong El Niño in 2015, but catches recovered in 2017 as El Niño subsided. Last year’s catch total remained below average, CMFRI Principal Scientists EM Abdussamad said in a press release as the species recovered from spawning failures in 2015 and 2016, which he said were caused by El Niño.
“Indian oil sardine is a sensitive pelagic fish whose biological cycle will easily be upset even due to slight differences in ocean ecosystem,” Abdussamad said. “The impact of El Nino is more evident along Kerala coasts than other areas of the country. Hence, the fluctuation in oil sardine catch is always high along the southwest coast.”
The revival of El Niño and its impact on India’s oil sardine stock before it can recover from the damage caused by previous cycles “may spell disaster [for] Kerala’s fisheries sector, with a dwindling catch,” Abdussamad said.
“What is more alarming now is that El Niño has struck again even before the resource recovered from biological stress like spawning failure in full-scale, which is likely to cause further troubles to the sardine stock,” Abdussamad said.
