While Alaska is expected to land less sockeye salmon this year than it did in 2015, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has predicted the 2016 harvest will be the second-largest of the past two decades.
The total sockeye harvest is expected to decline 11 percent to 47.7 million salmon in 2016, but salmon fishermen last year collectively posted their largest harvest since 1995. Indeed, the 2016 sockeye forecast is still well above the recent average harvest level.
As usual, the majority of sockeye – 62 percent or 29.5 million fish – are expected to be caught in Bristol Bay. This forecast is 10 percent above the 10-year average, a difference of approximately 2.6 million fish.
Sockeye projections for Kodiak (3.7 million fish) and Cook Inlet (4.2 million fish) are 68 percent and 33 percent, respectively, above the prior 10-year average harvest in those regions.
Given the large 2015 harvest and higher-than-expected 2014 harvest, which led to substantial increases in canned production, ADF&G expects processors will focus on fresh/frozen H&G and fillet production in 2016.
This will make quality a key area of focus this season, as quality defects for fresh/frozen products result in larger discounts than canned salmon where un-chilled fish, bruising, or skin marks have less of an impact on taste and appearance. Maximizing sockeye quality in 2016 will be even more important in maximizing resource value, compared to most years, said the department.
Although the 2015 sockeye harvest was large in terms of fish and pounds caught, the average fish size was relatively small in most areas of the state. The smaller-than-average fish have contributed to lower pricing for Alaska sockeye, as small fish yield less product and significantly less valuable fillets.
Overall, ADF&G has forecast an above-average salmon harvest of 161.4 million salmon in 2016. As well as 47.7 million sockeye, it estimates Alaska will harvest 465,000 Chinook, 4.4 million coho, 90.1 million pinks and 18.7 million keta.
