After years of steady harvest growth, the supply of Alaska-origin pollock is expected to decline in 2017 due to a cap on the Alaska Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands (BSAI) pollock harvest and lower stocks in the Gulf of Alaska.
The latest “Alaska Whitefish Market Summary & Outlook,” published by the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI), highlights that while pollock stocks in the eastern Bering Sea have been growing, groundfish harvests in Alaska’s BSAI region had reached their cap of 2 million metric tons (MT) and that any increase in the total allowable catch (TAC) needed to be offset by subtracting the allowable catch from other species. The latest TAC allocation process resulted in a minimal increase in the 2017 BSAI pollock TACs of 5,000 MT.
After reallocations, the 2016 BSAI pollock TAC amounted to 1,354,900 MT.
ASMI said that BSAI groundfish resources appear to be robust overall, with this year’s acceptable biological catch of BSAI groundfish estimated to be nearly 4 million MT. But it said that pollock stocks in the Gulf of Alaska are trending the opposite direction with the TAC down by 50,000 MT.
While the Gulf of Alaska pollock TACs are less than one-fifth of the larger BSAI pollock fishery, the BSAI cap structure, low pollock prices, and the decline in the region’s pollock biomass are expected to result in lower state-wide pollock harvests in 2017, said the institute.
Whether or not that translates into increased prices remains to be seen. So far this year, U.S. suppliers have been offering headed and gutted (H&G) Alaska pollock at USD 1,450 (EUR 1,350) to USD 1,550 (EUR 1,443) per MT.
Wholesale prices for Alaska pollock products have generally trended down in recent years due to a stronger U.S. dollar and increasing harvest volumes in both Alaska and Russia. Fillet blocks, surimi and roe account for most of the fishery’s value.
For the first 10 months of last year, the average export price of frozen pollock fillets was down 5.1 percent year-on-year, while the total export value of the product was down 4.7 percent. During the same period, the export value of surimi was up 4.1 percent on increased volume, but average prices were down 0.5 percent. The value of pollock roe exports were down 28.7 percent on lower volumes, but the average price was up 5.3 percent.
Overall, the wholesale value of Alaska pollock was expected to decline in 2016, due to lower prices for fillet blocks and lower roe values, said ASMI.
For 2016, industry estimated that the global pollock catch would exceed 3.4 million MT with the United States and Canada providing more than 1.5 million MT and Russia accounting for 1.7 million MT. Japan would be the other notable supplier with 195,000 MT.
Last year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) updated its list of acceptable market names for seafood to allow only pollock caught in Alaskan waters to be marketed as “Alaska pollock.” Alaska waters are defined the Alaska-adjacent Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) three to 200 miles offshore, according to the Magnuson-Stevens Act, which governs U.S. federal fisheries.
