Christmas came and went, and one gift was missing under the tree this year — a jump in U.S. seafood consumption. The numbers won't be available until summer, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its annual Fisheries of the United States report. But it's looking more and more like U.S. seafood consumption will remain flat at 16 pounds per-capita this year, as imports and landings of the top four species, which represent upward of two-thirds of total U.S. seafood consumption, are on par with last year.
The long-term outlook, however, is promising, as U.S. seafood production is expected to increase gradually over the next decade, thanks to aquaculture. More than anything, seafood's profile as a lean, heart-healthy protein is driving consumption growth.
But can U.S. seafood consumption break the 17-pound mark, or even close in on the 18-pound mark, by 2020? Maybe. If consumption is to reach its potential, there are five hurdles that the U.S. seafood industry must clear:
5) Lack of consumer education: One of the biggest challenges retailers and foodservice operators face is finding the time and resources to properly train their staff. But the payout is big — a better-educated staff equals a better-educated consumer base, and more knowledgeable consumers tend to eat more fish. The lack of consumer knowledge has dogged the U.S. seafood industry for decades. It's hard to believe, but a lot of consumers are afraid to cook fish and don't realize how simple it is to prepare. Giving consumers a little Seafood 101 would go a long way.
4) Lack of supply: As previously noted, so much of U.S. seafood consumption is dependent on supplies of the top four species — shrimp, canned tuna, salmon and pollock. Shrimp alone accounts for roughly one-quarter of the total, and 90 percent of the U.S. shrimp supply is imported. If shrimp imports fall (so far this year they're down 3.3 percent), seafood consumption usually falls, too. But if farmed shrimp production overseas grows at a healthy rate, and if tuna, salmon and pollock fisheries worldwide are managed in a sustainable manner, U.S. seafood consumption has the opportunity to expand over the long run. And don't forget about tilapia. In fact, tilapia has the greatest growth potential in terms of production. Tilapia wasn't even among the top 10 species until 2002, and now it's No. 5 on list at 1.2 pounds per-capita in 2008.
3) Trade barriers: U.S. seafood production has essentially leveled off. Fisheries are too carefully managed and real estate and labor costs are too high for both wild and farmed seafood production to expand significantly in the United States. Growth will come primarily from imports. But trade barriers brought on by protectionist domestic fishing interests restrict the flow of seafood imports and prevent consumption from reaching its potential. For example, the domestic catfish industry is pressing the U.S. Department of Agriculture to oversee the inspection of catfish (it's the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's responsibility now) and change the definition of "catfish" to include pangasius, which would effectively halt pangasius imports from Vietnam and China, a mild, low-cost farmed fish that, like tilapia, has the makeup to rise through the ranks. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is expected to make the call in January. For the sake of U.S. seafood consumption, let's hope Vilsack just says "no."
2) Food safety: The relatively high levels of methylmercury found in long-living, predatory fish like tuna and swordfish do not pose a serious human health threat. Nor do the trace amounts of antibiotics and fungicides sometimes found in farmed fish. But many Americans perceive that they do, and the mainstream media often lumps them in with foodborne illnesses (think E. coli and salmonella) when covering food-safety issues. What's a seafood marketer to do? See hurdle No. 5 — lack of consumer education. Reach out to consumers and the press with the facts, and work with your suppliers to ensure the seafood you buy is as safe as possible (less than 1 part per million of mercury and free of banned antibiotics and fungicides).
1) The economy: At the end of the day, it's all about money. Seafood is more expensive than competing proteins like chicken, pork and beef, and the United States is drudging through a down economy. Purse-tightening consumers are dining out less frequently, and that's taking a big bite out of U.S. seafood consumption because fish is so reliant on foodservice, which represents about two-thirds of total seafood sales. Slowly but surely, the country will dig itself out, and Americans will eat out more often. Until then, convincing Americans to spend more on seafood will be downright difficult. But there are a lot of values out there right now (think American lobster), and Americans are still treating themselves. With the right product mix and price points, increasing seafood sales in 2010 may not be as unfeasible as you think.
December 28, 2009
