Seafood sales at U.S. retail stores grew slightly by value in August, mainly due to inflation, according to data from market research firm Circana.
“Seafood experienced some inflation across all temperature zones, including ambient, refrigerated, and frozen,” 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink said.
During the month, fresh seafood prices rose 2.6 percent. Sales in the category increased 0.8 percent by value to USD 823 million (EUR 695 million), but sales by volume declined 1.8 percent.
Fresh finfish performed particularly well in August, with sales by value growing 4.4 percent and sales by volume rising 3.8 percent.
“Refrigerated finfish dollar sales have been growing since the third quarter of 2024,” Roerink said. “Pound sales have experienced even greater gains.”
By species in the category, trout experienced a 17 percent spike in sales by value and a 19.5 percent surge in sales by volume. Tilapia sales by value also inclined 12.6 percent, while sales by volume rose 15.5 percent. Fresh salmon sales rose 5 percent by value and 4.2 percent by volume.
Frozen seafood prices rose 4.4 percent in the month. Its sales by value rose 1.2 percent to USD 777 million (EUR 656 million), but its sales by volume decreased 3.1 percent.
Salmon also saw “robust gains” in the frozen department in August, Roerink said, as sales by value increased 7.5 percent and sales by volume increased by around 3 percent. Frozen shrimp, meanwhile, remains the top-selling frozen seafood species, but sales growth by volume has stalled in recent months, according to Roerink. Frozen shrimp sales rose 0.5 percent by value in August but dropped 5.3 percent by volume.
Shelf-stable seafood prices rose 3.4 percent. Its sales also followed the trend of increasing by value but decreasing by volume, increasing 0.7 percent to USD 332 million (EUR 280 million) but dropping 2.6 percent by volume in the month.
Looking forward, seafood prices are likely to be increasingly impacted by the implementation of tariffs on imports from various countries, along with general market uncertainty, according to Roerink, who said the average price per unit for total food and beverages increased 3.1 percent in August, “primarily driven by commodity volatility impacting categories both directly and indirectly.”
“Incremental cost pressures may emerge, influenced by product reformulation initiatives, indirect tariff effects, and market uncertainty,” she said, adding that an example likely to emerge soon at U.S. retailers is that tariffs on steel and aluminum may start to impact packaging costs for canned seafood.
As a result, the University of Michigan reported a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment in August from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August, marking the first decline in four months and “driven by heightened concern about inflation,” Roerink said.
The impact of tariffs on grocery prices is U.S. shoppers’ top concern, with 57 percent of consumers saying they are either “very” or “extremely” concerned, according to FMI – The Food Industry Association.
“Food price inflation continues to experience challenges driven by input costs and market uncertainties,” FMI Vice President of Tax, Trade, Sustainability, and Policy Development Andy Harig said, adding that the price incline is likely a result of “significant production cost increases flowing through the supply chain.”
Despite increasing concerns over grocery inflation and tariffs on imports, Roerink and other retail analysts said they believe consumers will spend more on seafood this upcoming holiday season.
Consumers tend to splurge during the holidays, according to Roerink and DNR Sales & Marketing Strategy Advisors President Jason Resner, who said even though consumers are worried about the economy, they will likely still be willing to spend on gatherings with family and friends.
“Seafood should particularly see an increase this year as long as retailers do not shy away from advertised promotions due to the retail being higher,” Resner said. "Although overall volume will be down, the increased sales will unfortunately be driven via inflation on both regular retails as well as promotional.”
Roerink said she expects holiday seafood sales to be at similar or slightly elevated levels from last year by both value and volume but added that it is difficult to predict.
“Typically, uncertainty in the marketplace leads to consumers spending with more restraint. We’re certainly seeing that. Consumers are still preparing more meals at home compared to buying restaurant food,” she said.
