U.S. restaurant sales and traffic slowed in 2024, and for some individual chains, those negative trends have continued into 2025.
Sales among the nation’s 500 largest restaurant chains increased 3.1 percent in 2024, but that was the lowest annual increase in 10 years – excluding the Covid-19-related slowdown in 2020 – according to Technomic’s 2025 Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report.
The report also found that nearly 40 percent of U.S. restaurants experienced a sales decline last year.
"The restaurant industry faced significant headwinds in 2024, including higher prices, shifting consumer spending patterns, and increased competition," Technomic Senior Director of Industry Research Kevin Schimpf said. "Despite a challenging environment, top 500 chain sales stayed positive, climbing for the fourth consecutive year.”
Traffic at seafood restaurants fell 1 percent in 2024, while sales were flat for the year, research firm Circana told SeafoodSource.
One seafood chain, Bonefish Grill, which has 166 locations across the country and is operated by Tampa, Florida, U.S.A.-based Bloomin’ Brands, experienced sales declines of 8.3 percent to USD 533 million (EUR 469 million), according to the Technomic report.
In response to disappointing performances from several of its brands, Bloomin’ Brands laid off 100 corporate employees and reduced menus at its Outback, Bonefish Grill, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, and Fleming Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar restaurants.
Red Lobster was another chain that struggled mightily in 2024, experiencing a sales drop of nearly 23 percent to USD 1.68 billion (EUR 1.5 billion), while its restaurant count plunged 20 percent to 518, according to Technomic.
Despite turnaround efforts post-bankruptcy, such as streamlining its menu and partnerships with celebrities such as Flavor Flav, customer visits to Red Lobster have continued to plunge this year. Customer visits fell 31 percent in January, 35 percent in February, and 24 percent in March, according to Placer.ai.
The large reduction in locations has contributed somewhat to the year-over-year traffic declines, but visits per location have decreased as well, Placer.ai Head of Analytical Research R.J. Hottovy told SeafoodSource.
“This suggests that the chain’s ongoing turnaround efforts have yet to fully gain traction and may also reflect broader economic headwinds. In the current environment, consumers remain highly price-conscious and have scaled back on dining out,” he said.
Full-service restaurant chains are not the only ones struggling.
Quick-service restaurants experienced a 1.6 percent decline in visits in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024, according to Placer.ai, while visits to fast casual chains were flat in the period.
Despite the tough year or so many chains have had, others have found success.
Texas Roadhouse and Chili’s Grill & Bar have been bright spots in the full-service segment. Both chains achieved double-digit sales increases in 2024, while estimated consumer spending rose 14 percent at Texas Roadhouse and 12 percent at Chili’s, according to Technomic.
Customer visits to Chili’s also surged nearly 29 percent in January, nearly 17 percent in February, and 22 percent in March 2025, according to Placer.ai.
“What's happening is that young people are coming in after they’ve seen us on TikTok, and they're like, ‘Wow, this experience is really good,’ and it becomes a part of the rotation,” Chili’s CEO Kevin Hochman said during an earnings call in January. “I think that's why you've seen the longevity in the results and the acceleration. We're at this point with increased traffic and the ability to invest to … really support [our] teams with the things they need to deal with this increased traffic.”
Some Darden Restaurant brands also performed well last year and into this year.
Sales rose 3.2 percent for Eddie V’s Prime Seafood in 2024, while The Capital Grille sales were up 2 percent. Olive Garden also realized slight growth of 0.8 percent.
Cheesecake Factory, which operates more than 200 restaurants, is also resonating with American diners. The company represented the highest average unit volume (AUV), or average annual sales across all operating locations, in Circana’s recent top 50 restaurant ranking report at USD 12.8 million (EUR 11.3 million).
In a recent menu overhaul, the company got rid of 13 items, including its Fried Shrimp Platter and Bistro Shrimp Pasta, but added 22 items including branzino on its Skinnylicious menu, Ahi Tuna and Shrimp Ceviche, and Thai Stir Fried Noodles with Shrimp.
Large chain restaurant transactions have also improved as 2025 has rolled along, especially in March, according to Circana data, when transactions for the four weeks ending 6 April were flat, marking a gain over February’s 4 percent decline.
The shift showcases the industry’s “remarkable resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence,” Circana said in a press release.
