This is a story about a courageous tortoise who challenged a confident hare to a race. The challenge takes place in Indonesia where the finish line is an ambitious aquaculture production target, for the Indonesian government has announced its goal of reaching 37 million tons annually by 2030. An estimated half-a-million tons of this will be black tiger shrimp (P. monodon), and 1.3 million tons Pacific white shrimp (L. vannamei).
This target of 1.8 million tons of shrimp, which would triple current production volumes, is based on foreign exchange and population growth but leaves several important factors out of the equation. Perhaps the most important factor not represented in this number is the physical limitations of the available land with consideration for environmental impact. When allocating the right coastal areas for shrimp aquaculture several factors should be considered, including water quality and infrastructure. For Indonesia, now is the time to address these issues, as it approaches the starting line in preparation for the first leg of the race.
Two years ago, Hatfield Consultants used a spatial mapping tool to determine that the 1.9 million hectares of suitable space required to reach the shrimp production targets was present and abundant. However, a closer look at the availability of land considered “most suitable” proved that it is much less than required. This led World- Fish, Stockholm Resilience Centre and Hatfield Consultants to join forces to investigate the suitability of shrimp farming land in three regions of Indonesia.
A tool was developed to identify the trade-offs for allocating the coastlines and resources to aquaculture development. Numerous variables were considered: Water quality, tidal fluctuation, soil characteristics, topography, vegetation, infrastructure/accessibility and social aspects. Areas were scored on all these variables and were ranked most suitable, suitable or not suitable. This ranking was then applied to two scenarios to illustrate how much suitable land is available if ecological factors are considered and if they are not. This is where our first contender in the race makes Its appearance: the hare.
Business-as-usual scenario (the hare)
In the business-as-usual scenario, suitable areas were not limited by regulations, existing land use, or land allocations from the government. This resulted in around 3.5 million hectares of suitable (i.e. a combination of suitable and most suitable) land for shrimp aquaculture. At an area roughly the size of Java, this is a comfortable size, and is also very promising when considering the short-term monetary gain, a very fitting situation to represent the over-confident and speedy hare.
However, this is a very one-sided approach, as it does not consider the environmental impact such a strategy would have. For example, if mangroves are cleared to make way for fisheries and/or shrimp farms, the area becomes more susceptible to flooding, storm surges and tsunamis. Furthermore, an increase in production means an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and will significantly affect the water quality in the area.
Protected Areas scenario (the tortoise)
Our other contender, the tortoise, the Protected Areas scenario, accounts for conservation forest areas, marine protected areas, the condition of mangrove forests and coral reefs, and land allocations for coastal and small islands when calculating suitable land available. This leaves 1.98 million hectares of suitable land for shrimp aquaculture – a decrease of 50 percent in comparison to the business-as-usual scenario. Though limited as the tortoise may seem when compared to the hare, this area should be enough to meet the 2030 shrimp targets, keeping in mind this scenario is based solely on spatial information. The figure above shows an example of each scenario as applied to north-west Bali.
Government officials and investors can use this model of the suitable areas as a tool to stimulate and facilitate discussion leading to well-informed decisions on the allocation of land. Several workshops with government officials have already taken place and have proven fruitful, as interesting discussions arose – questioning the methodology and the parameters of the tool as well as the use of these kinds of interactive platforms as tools to support decision- making processes.
However, they are not there yet. Whether they want to focus solely on shrimp production or on other species must also be looked at.
Regrettably for those of us in the shrimp business, shrimp is not the only aquaculture product that has targets to make, and more sectors are competing for this precious environment. Carnivorous species consume more resources and – while continuing the business- as-usual approach to meeting targets – emissions are projected to increase by as much as 6-fold, so shifting demand towards omnivorous finfish species could be the new direction to take.
Brighter days
But don't lose confidence in the tortoise just yet. Patrik Henriksson of the Stockholm Resilience Center assures ShrimpTails that aquaculture production could most likely be doubled (not tripled) by 2030 without putting additional pressure on the environment. Yes, with the right sustainable innovations and interventions, the environmental impact of aquaculture production could be similar to what it is now, but with more output. The research team does not have exact estimates for shrimp farming in particular, but they are optimistic. Henriksson and his colleagues project that impacts from shrimp farming could be lowered by a third if Indonesia does it right.
The researchers have been tackling the question of how to enable investment in the right locations and interventions for the right type of aquaculture development. Their analysis includes assessing which existing initiatives can be strengthened and what is required to change the business-as-usual approach.
There is a lot to be gained when it comes to changing the feed. When farmers start using better quality feed, improved strains, better quality seed and better farming practices, feed conversion ratios (FCRs) for Pacific white shrimp, carp and tilapia could most likely be decreased by 20 percent or more. Furthermore, existing traditional, low-yield Tambak systems, in which polyculture ponds are used for finfish, shrimp and seaweed farming, can be intensified by using commercial feeds.
In 2015, WorldFish published “Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures,” reporting that some aquaculture, such as that of groupers and black tiger shrimp, relies heavily on wild caught whole fish, and the amount needed to sustain the growth in the business-as-usual scenario would mean 7.8 million metric tons of wild catches must be allocated to feed by 2030, which is rather counterproductive as this would require all catches from fisheries being transformed into ingredients for feed. Shifting them to pelleted feed and reducing fishmeal in feeds could double the intensity of yield, and this way Indonesia could start to bridge the yield gap with China, which is already implementing more efficient feeds.
Aside from improving feed and farming practices, a nationwide shift towards renewable energy sources and reduced food waste needs to occur (currently an estimated 35 percent of seafood in Indonesia is wasted). These two issues go hand in hand, for example when remote farms experience power failure and cannot sustain optimal water quality because their equipment is off, or they cannot keep the seafood refrigerated. Further, freshwater use must be reduced. These changes will not be easy to implement as many farmers don’t have access to the necessary capital, resources or extension services.
Reaching the finish line
The Indonesian government will need to adjust its targets in order to prevent environmental disaster. If the right decisions are made, aquaculture output could potentially be doubled by 2030, without any additional pressure on the environment. Decisions such as how much development will be focused on shrimp production, will it be export or domestic-oriented, which areas will be used for farming and what kind of feed will these farms use need to be made. Investors need to have a conversation about slower but more stable and sustainable growth. This means focusing investment on sustainable development in the scarce “most suitable” areas as well as those areas ranked “suitable,” and intensifying existing ponds by using better feed and water systems.
Will the hare reach the finish line if the natural resources are all tapped out or if an environmental disaster transpires? For Indonesia, it may be wise to bet on the tortoise, as slow and steady will ultimately win this race.
Photo courtesy of Seafood Trade Intelligence Portal
