The North Pacific Fishery Management Council Scientific and Statistical Committee has recommended an acceptable biological catch (ABC) level of 1.111 million metric tons (MT) for the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands pollock fishery in 2022 – making a drop in total allowable catch (TAC) nearly certain.
A stock assessment and fishery evaluation report by the NPFMC already indicated the ABC could be lowered to 1.111 million MT in 2022, a significant drop from the 1.626 million MT ABC in 2021. That drop would more-than-likely mean a drop in allowable catch, as the allowable catch is set below the ABC.
Typically, the TAC is set well below the ABC – in 2021 the TAC was 1.375 million MT, or 15 percent below the ABC. While that difference is not a rule, even if the TAC is set at the maximum allowed, it would represent a significant drop in pollock catch available.
However, new data shared by the SSC during its meeting indicates that there a lot of young fish present in surveys, indicating the species potentially has strong recruitment. However, there is still an expected decline in spawning biomass through 2022.
“We had a bottom trawl that was 65 percent of the mean, the eighth-lowest in history,” Alaska Fisheries Science Center Research Biologist James Ianelli said during the meeting. “Holding effort constant from 2021 seems like a prudent thing to do just in principle, not to fish harder when your stock is in decline.”
SSC statistical modeling found the fishing effort is likely to remain the same given an ABC of 1.111 million MT. However, if the fishery continued at a TAC of 1.375 million MT, there is an 87 percent chance it would expend greater effort in 2022 than in 2022.
Photo courtesy of NOAA
