A major Chinese securities brokerage has issued a gloomy prediction regarding Chinese seafood demand and pricing in 2024.
Haitong Securities said in a note to investors that the Chinese seafood market remains in “oversupply” and pointed to weak price growth through the New Year’s holiday.
However, Haitong is forecasting a potential upswing in prices for the spring because of tighter supply due to destocking strategies employed by many Chinese aquaculture producers harmed by lower prices.
“In many cases, the lower prices meant smaller inputs of seedlings,” Haitong said. “The higher prices create a better outlook for the corporate sector.”
Price pressure on primary producers may also force further consolidation in the country’s aquaculture sector, Haitong said.
Prices for ribbonfish and tilapia rose 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, on a month-over-month basis in the first week of January, while the average price of carp dropped 2.7 percent, according to data collected by China’s Agriculture Ministry. Prices for carp dropped 2.7 percent over the same time frame.
The average price of perch, meanwhile, at CNY 10.60 (USD 1.48, EUR 1.37) per 500 grams was flat compared to December 2023 data. The average price of shrimp rose 8 percent month over month to an average of CNY 25.60 (USD 3.58, EUR 3.32) per 500 grams, while the average pond-gate price of fresh fish was down 4.3 percent month over month.
According to ministry data, average prices for fishmeal, soy, and corn rose by 0.5 percent, 1.6 percent, and 0.1 percent, respectively, month over month in the first week of January. Weaker demand from the aquaculture and pig-farming sectors drove down demand for fishmeal imports in 2023.
As a result, the inventory of domestic fishmeal appears higher than it was a year ago. Cumulative imports of fishmeal into China declined 9.4 percent year over year from January to November 2023, aligning with weaker domestic demand from both aqua- and piglet feed producers and reduced Peruvian supply, according to marine ingredients trade group IFFO, which said China’s use of fishmeal for aquaculture purposes in 2023 is not expected to surpass that of 2022.
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