The Alaska Department of Fish and Wildlife (ADF&W) is predicting the total commercial catch in 2025 could be double that of 2024.
The ADF&W said the total commercial salmon harvest across all regions of Alaska could reach 214.6 million fish, more than double the 103.5 million fish the state caught last year. Alaska’s salmon season will officially get underway on 22 May, when the Copper River fishery opens.
The department’s forecast predicts the total commercial salmon harvest will comprise 138.4 million pink salmon, 52.9 million sockeye, 20.8 million chum, and 2.4 million coho.
The official forecast, released on 13 May, would be a big improvement over the 2024 season which saw predictions of a significantly smaller harvest that in some areas were poor enough that Alaska requested federal relief in the form of disaster aid.
For Bristol Bay fishermen participating in the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery, lower harvests led to a total ex-vessel value for the fleet of just USD 304 million (EUR 271 million), down from the USD 398.6 million (EUR 355 million) the salmon fishery earned in 2023 – a year marked by extremely low ex-vessel prices that caused hardship for a lot of Alaska-based fishing businesses.
The sockeye salmon fishery also suffered from low average size of just 4.53 pounds, one of the smallest on record. According to ADF&W, the run was made up of a higher proportion of younger and smaller fish than it originally forecasted, which was the reason behind the lower weights.
This year, the department is predicting the Bristol Bay salmon run will be strong, with a median estimate of 51.38 million fish, with a forecast range between 37.08 million fish at the low end and 65.67 million fish at the high end. The department noted that since 2005, the department has underforecast the actual run by 15 percent on average.
That median total is 16 percent smaller than the most recent 10-year average – in part thanks to a record-breaking catch of 76 million fish in 2022. Set against the longer-term average, the run is expected to be 38 percent higher than normal.
As the department predicts a solid salmon run in 2025, Silver Bay Seafoods has already announced its starting price for the 2025 Bristol Bay sockeye season.
"SBS can confirm that we have announced to our fleet that we will begin the 2025 Bristol Bay season with a price of USD 1.30 [EUR 1.16] per pound for bled, chilled sockeye,” Silver Bay Seafoods Chief Operating Officer Branson Spiers told SeafoodSource. “As has been our recent practice, we will further evaluate postseason and may make a favorable adjustment to ex-vessel pricing at that time.”
Last year, the base starting price for Bristol Bay sockeye was USD 0.80 (EUR 0.71) per pound, with a higher USD 1.10 (EUR 0.98) per pound for bled and chilled sockeye.
