A panel of salmon industry experts at the Global Seafood Market Conference in Hollywood, Florida, U.S.A., are predicting supplies of farmed salmon could be constrained due to relatively flat production.
Salmon supplies in 2025 were marked by an increase in volume out of Norway, with data shared during the panel indicating the Norwegian Atlantic salmon harvest increased by roughly 11 percent in 2025.
Hofseth Chief Sales Officer Trond Valderhaug said that the high harvest was largely related to ideal growing conditions Norway had at the start of the year.
“We came into 2025 with temperatures that were higher than average, so I would say biologically, we performed really well,” Valderhaug said.
Heading into 2026, there is high biomass in Norway’s net pens but fewer individuals, meaning the salmon available will be larger in size. Overall, data indicates the salmon supply coming out of Norway will contract slightly compared to the banner year in 2025, shrinking by around 1 percent.
The supply story is similar in Chile, according to Multi X CEO Cristian Swett Plá. The country saw an estimated 15 percent increase in salmon production in 2025, according to Kontali data shared during the panel.
“When you look at 15 percent, it looks like a lot,” Plá said. “The thing is that 2024 was really really low, so when you compare historically, it’s not that big of a jump.”
Plá projects the harvest will remain relatively flat in 2026, with it likely contracting slightly to under 800,000 metric tons (MT), keeping Chile’s supply on par with what it has been in recent years.
Outside of Chile and Norway, other major producing regions have largely been flat.
Cooke Director of Global Supply Brett Cooke said the closure of salmon farms in British Columbia, Canada, has constrained the amount of salmon coming out of the country, which has been only partially replaced by increases in other countries like Iceland, Scotland, and the Faroe Islands.
“That’s been taking up some of the supply retractions from the Canadian market,” Cooke said.
Overall, global farmed salmon supplies will likely remain flat in 2026 while demand for salmon has continued to be strong.
“Demand is super strong,” Valderhaug said. “Different markets are easily absorbing the volumes that we are producing.”
That strong demand coupled with a flat or even contracting supply had the panel predicting supplies of salmon will be tight, which will lead to price increases.
“Consensus is, you’re looking at a price increase in 2026 between 16 to 18 percent,” Valderhaug said.
Plá said in the U.S. spot market, things will probably start to shift in Q2 and Q3.
“The spot market is going to be a little bit crazy by the middle of the year,” he said. “If I were a buyer, I would try to secure contracts at the beginning of the year.”
