Global aquaculture and fisheries data analysis firm Kontali and an annual survey by Rabobank are both indicating the global supply of salmon will remain flat due to continued headwinds in 2025.
According to Rabobank Global Seafood Specialist Gorjan Nikolik, an annual survey conducted by the company of important players in the seafood industry and data collected by Kontali indicate major salmon-producing countries Chile and Norway are both facing a difficult period now and in the near future.
“You see pretty healthy historical growth, but we are in a difficult time now, as we probably had a decline last year,” Nikolik said.
Norway has faced several challenges in 2024, including an “explosive” growth of sea lice and a high percentage of lower-quality salmon, dubbed “production-grade” salmon, which is illegal to export. Nikolik said the country appears to be nearing the end of those difficulties and there could be modest growth.
In contrast, Nikolik said that Chile is still struggling with issues, and after its salmon-farming industry posted a strong compound annual growth rate of 16 percent between 2010 and when it peaked in 2020, it plateaued and then contracted. Current estimates find Chile’s salmon production will drop by as much as 7 percent in 2024.
“Chile is struggling. I would say this country is not going to be able to produce the products, the volume, that it made in 2020,” Nikolik said. “They won’t even reach that in 2026.”
That prediction is based on current biomass in the water, and based on that and the survey, Chile will be well behind its 2023 production for the forseeable future.
Not every country struggled in 2024, though.
Nikolik said Scotland’s salmon production will be up by 15 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, which was itself down from an extremely difficult 2022 that saw the industry’s total production drop 18 percent.
“Congratulations to Scotland coming back so strongly, and it seems like this is one of the best years Scottish salmon has had in a long time,” Nikolik said. “They’re on a road to good recovery.”
Looking forward, Nikolik predicts Scotland will continue its increases in 2025 and 2026, rising an estimated 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
The Faroe Islands and a number of other smaller salmon-farming countries are also growing.
“Australia is doing really well and now sort of slowing down,” Nikolik said. “Ireland and the U.S. are flat, and Iceland is doing very well after slowing down. They’re going back to growth.”
Data indicates Iceland will see 24 percent growth in its salmon production in 2024 and is predicted to continue growing beyond that.
“Well done Iceland. I think these guys are really going to be one of the countries to watch in the next five to six years,” Nikolik said.
On the opposite side of the spectrum is Canada, which has ...
