Global aquaculture and fisheries data analysis firm Kontali and an annual survey by Rabobank are both indicating the global supply of salmon will remain flat due to continued headwinds in 2025.
According to Rabobank Global Seafood Specialist Gorjan Nikolik, an annual survey conducted by the company of important players in the seafood industry and data collected by Kontali indicate major salmon-producing countries Chile and Norway are both facing a difficult period now and in the near future.
“You see pretty healthy historical growth, but we are in a difficult time now, as we probably had a decline last year,” Nikolik said.
Norway has faced several challenges in 2024, including an “explosive” growth of sea lice and a high percentage of lower-quality salmon, dubbed “production-grade” salmon, which is illegal to export. Nikolik said the country appears to be nearing the end of those difficulties and there could be modest growth.
In contrast, Nikolik said that Chile is still struggling with issues, and after its salmon-farming industry posted a strong compound annual growth rate of 16 percent between 2010 and when it peaked in 2020, it plateaued and then contracted. Current estimates find Chile’s salmon production will drop by as much as 7 percent in 2024.
“Chile is struggling. I would say this country is not going to be able to produce the products, the volume, that it made in 2020,” Nikolik said. “They won’t even reach that in 2026.”
That prediction is based on current biomass in the water, and based on that and the survey, Chile will be well behind its 2023 production for the forseeable future.
Not every country struggled in 2024, though.
Nikolik said Scotland’s salmon production will be up by 15 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, which was itself down from an extremely difficult 2022 that saw the industry’s total production drop 18 percent.
“Congratulations to Scotland coming back so strongly, and it seems like this is one of the best years Scottish salmon has had in a long time,” Nikolik said. “They’re on a road to good recovery.”
Looking forward, Nikolik predicts Scotland will continue its increases in 2025 and 2026, rising an estimated 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
The Faroe Islands and a number of other smaller salmon-farming countries are also growing.
“Australia is doing really well and now sort of slowing down,” Nikolik said. “Ireland and the U.S. are flat, and Iceland is doing very well after slowing down. They’re going back to growth.”
Data indicates Iceland will see 24 percent growth in its salmon production in 2024 and is predicted to continue growing beyond that.
“Well done Iceland. I think these guys are really going to be one of the countries to watch in the next five to six years,” Nikolik said.
On the opposite side of the spectrum is Canada, which has had shrinking production and will likely remain either flat or go further negative, according to Nikolik.
“This is a long story, but there are issues in Canada and British Columbia,” Nikolik said.
One of those issues is the Canadian government refusing to renew salmon-farming licenses in the Discovery Islands in the province of British Columbia, forcing companies to close down farms. Recently, the Canadian government placed a five-year time limit on the salmon farming industry in B.C. – adding to pressures on salmon farming in the province.
Kontali Chief Analyst Ragnar Nystoyl said licensing is one of the “common themes among various salmon-producing countries” that’s causing the salmon industry to face major headwinds in 2025 and 2026.
Nystoyl said securing a license to produce – be it through actual licensing or simply through regulatory framework – is increasingly important in the global salmon industry.
“There [are] different factors, but I would highlight that regulatory capacity, or capacity for farming granted on the licensing side, is becoming more scarce,” Nystoyl said. “I would say it [has become] much more political and unpredictable.”
Nystoyl added that quality salmon-producing sites are a scarce resource and there is fierce competition between different stakeholders that want alternative usages for the land.
“I think the past few years, you see the trend that this ‘license’ to operate is only granted in change for stronger and stronger requirements for the industry,” Nystoyl said. “[This] also leads it to be more and more costly. It’s costly to grow, and it’s costly to maintain the production.”
Despite those headwinds, Nystoyl said in the near term, salmon production will be up roughly 4 percent to 5 percent in 2025 barring any issues. However, that doesn’t mean the salmon industry is out of the woods.
“If we reach this level, we’re still only back at the 2020 level. Markets have been there before,” Nystoyl.
He added that production will be stable throughout 2025 – but that doesn’t mean the supply will be stable.
“If you remember the last two, three years, there has been, with Atlantic salmon, a supply shortage on the first half and more supply in the second half,” Nystoyl said. “This is confirming that that imbalance will be there [in 2025] also.”
