Container spot rates for ocean transport have declined significantly, with rates in some trade lanes reaching lows last seen in December 2023.
Rates between the Far East and the U.S. have fallen significantly, down 8 percent since the end of August, according to experts in the shipping and logistics industry. Rates on these routes spiked at the beginning of September, surprising container pricing analysts, but quickly fell enough to wipe out the early month spike.
The downward trend on U.S.-Far East routes was expected, given the upcoming 14 November return of U.S.-China tariffs. On that date the U.S. will begin taxing Chinese imports at roughly 145 percent, while China will tax U.S. goods at around 125 percent.
Some of the declines, Senior Manager of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors Hind Chitty said, were also attributable to China’s Golden Week festivities, which were likely to decrease rates on routes running East to West.
In response to this, she said, some carriers had increased blank sailings and reduced load capacity.
Both Xeneta and Drewry reported that rates have fallen globally, not just on routes between the Far East and the U.S. Though the decline happened slowly, rates between Northern Europe and the U.S. East Coast, for instance, fell to their lowest value since December 2023, 21 months earlier.
Both firms predicted a continued contraction of container rates, though Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand reminded shippers to be prepared for unexpected shakeups.
“The September spot rate spike should act as a reminder that markets are still volatile,” Sand said. “The lights are still flashing red on the geo-political dashboard so it would be foolish for shippers to believe there is not potential for more pain as we look ahead to 2026.”
Additionally, The 30 September news that China was considering charging U.S. vessels port fees in retaliation for the U.S. Trade Representative’s plan to fee Chinese-built or -flagged vessels in American ports appears likely to further depress trade between the Far East and the U.S.
So far, that plan’s stated goal of energizing American ship building has not been successful, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which recently put out a report which observed that while some shipping firms appeared poised to make changes when the policy was first announced, now “many shipping companies are moving full steam ahead with buying from Chinese shipyards.”
