Experts in the shipping and logistics industry are predicting the U.S. sector will begin to feel the effects of tariffs this fall, which will likely manifest in low import cargo volumes, low traffic on routes into the U.S., and lower container prices.
John McCown, of The McCown Report – who has long been predicting a major decline in 2025 inbound cargo volume –said on 22 September he expected to see a double-digit drop in container volume by the end of September as tariffs implemented by the Trump administration take full effect. McCown based his forecast on the fact that the United States’ largest ports saw very little increase (0.1 percent) in their year-over-year total inbound volumes in August.
By contrast, the previous year’s total inbound volume by August at those same large ports was a year-over-year gain of 19.5 percent.
McCown said other national logistics sectors are picking up the volume that the U.S. has lost, and China has ramped up its exports globally.
“When U.S. container volume data is compared to global data and data in other major areas, there is a noticeable and widening gap as the downtrends in U.S. lanes are being significantly mitigated by increased volume in other areas,” McCown said.
Container exports from the Far East in July, for instance, were up by 6.3 percent.
“World container supply chains have already begun to adapt and reconfigure trade patterns. The U.S. is a less relevant player in world trade today than it was prior to these various tariff initiatives and will become more so as announced plans are implemented,” McCown said.
Declines in cargo volumes are historically rare; McCown said that he was “only aware of two periods of annual declin[e]” in the U.S. history of container shipping: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
In fact, McCown said, the growth of container volume rates is generally “a tangible metric that has consistently for decades grown above U.S. GDP, most often at two, three, or even more multiples of [the] GDP.”
“The unusual nature of an actual decline in inbound container volume into the U.S. cannot be overemphasized,” he added.
McCown also said he believed tariffs on imports into the U.S. will end up costing Americans jobs, because such tariffs would provoke countervailing tariffs, which would mean fewer U.S. exports and lower outbound container volumes.
“Reductions in outbound container volume are invariably linked to reduced jobs in the U.S.,” he said.
Experts from Drewry and Xeneta, which track container rates on a weekly basis, also said that a decline appeared to be underway. Though rates for containers on routes between the Far East and the U.S. had increased somewhat last week, the overall downward trend is now continuing, they said.
In an 18 September industry update, Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said that shippers who sought lower rates would be rewarded for patience.
“If shippers are prepared to call the carriers’ bluff, we will see the mid-month increases fall away pretty quickly with softening spot rates for the remainder of the month,” Sand said.
September through December are usually high volume months for U.S. ports, as well as months when container rates are high, but Sand told SeafoodSource in an email that things are different in 2025 .
“There’s no such thing as a ‘normal’ peak season in Q3 2025 – nor is demand that strong, as frontloading is all done – and last but not least carriers are not managing capacity on the Transpacific in a ‘smart’ way currently,” Sand said. “So the balance is off – too much capacity against weak demand.”
Senior Manager of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors Hind Chitty added that “despite a brief uptick [in container rates mid September], the momentum from GRIs [General Rate Increases] and blank sailings has now faded, which led to the reduction in rates.”
Blank sailings occur when a carrier cancels a scheduled route or skips a port of call due to low demand. They have increased lately, Chitty said, and will likely continue to do so in advance of China’s Golden Week holidays, which run from 1 to 7 October, and shut down factories, delaying shipping.
New vessels have also entered the trade, Chitty said, and “this decline comes as carriers struggle to match increased capacity … with softening demand.”
