U.S. imports declined again in August and are likely, experts say, to continue to decline for the rest of the year.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), which produces the Global Port Tracker with Hackett Associates, attributed the declines, both actual and projected, to the effect of tariff pauses, which caused shippers to move merchandise for the holiday season early, producing mid-summer shipping rushes.
Now, according to NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold, “most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
“This year’s peak season has come and gone,” Gold said, even as new tariffs continue to be announced.
“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent."
The Global Port Tracker, which tracks historical trends in shipping volumes, as well as forecasts future volumes, reported that U.S. ports handled 2.32 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August, a 2.9 percent drop from July, and a 0.1 percent year-over-year increase.
It also projected that September’s numbers, which have not yet been reported, will represent a 6.8 percent year-over-year drop, coming in at 2.12 million TEUs. From there, the declines are expected to continue, with a 12.3 percent year-over-year drop predicted for October, a 19.2 percent drop in November, and a 19.4 percent drop in December.
“While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes,” an NRF release said.
Additionally, Xeneta reported on 10 October that average spot rates on all trade routes had declined somewhat from the previous week, when sharp declines were also seen throughout most routes.
The shipping analysis service called September “a month of turmoil and upheaval for the U.S.-bound short-term market out of the Far East."
"There was a significant jump in spot rates on 1 September and then some turbulence during the month, but by 30 September the earlier spike had been wiped out,” Xeneta said.
Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand predicted that “freight rates will continue a steady decline for the rest of 2025,” though he added that market volatility meant that there might be “drama on the way.”
He specifically pointed toward new Chinese legislation that paved the way for countermeasures against the U.S. and told shippers to expect some “pain” in the coming months.
“The lights are still flashing red on the geopolitical dashboard,” he said.
