Transpacific shipping rates have continued to decline in recent weeks, bearing out the predictions of shipping analysts who said that Asian shippers would stop rushing goods into the U.S. now that the country's tariff pause with China has been extended past its initial three months.
The first tariff pause jointly announced by the U.S. and China, which suspended the highest tariffs proposed in the countries’ trade war, caused a rush of cargo into the country, increasing rates for shipping containers and causing U.S. ports to report record high volumes.
Shipping and logistics sector experts from Freightos, Xeneta, and Drewry have all said that they do not believe the latest tariff pause will cause another shipping boom.
Furthermore, according to FreightWaves, Freightos Research Head Judah Levine said that he did not expect the uncertainty affecting tariff policy to continue to create big swings in rate changes and cargo weights for the logistics industry. This, he said, was because policy changes were not being implemented quickly after they were announced.
“These implementation lags [between policy changes and their taking effect] mean it will take longer to see if the tariff changes impact freight volume and rates,” Levine said.
Xeneta Head Peter Sand said that though shipping rates were continuing to fall, they were not falling as fast as they had in July.
“Average spot rates to the U.S. East Coast are now at the lowest level since the end of 2023,” he said.
Sand predicted that prices would continue to fall and advised shippers "not [to] fear peak season surcharges because, quite simply, there is no traditional peak season in 2025."
Peak shipping season in the U.S. is typically between mid-August and the end of the year, when shippers hurry goods into markets nationwide in order to respond to the beginning of the school year and holiday demand. However, tariff uncertainty and other geopolitical issues have changed this year’s expectations significantly.
“Shippers looking to sign new long-term contracts have much to consider because they must balance where rates are right now, where they are likely to be in 2026, and how much of an impact the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea should have on the rates they are paying on each trade,” he said.
Drewry’s World Container Index, which tracks multiple metrics related to the cost and availability of 40-foot-equivalent units (FEUs) worldwide, also predicted a continued slowdown. In a release about current trends, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors Senior Manager Hind Chitty that the Container Index had fallen for the 11th straight week.
“The unpredictability began after U.S. tariffs were announced in April, which caused rates to surge from May through early June, but they plunged thereafter until mid-July and continued to decline,” she said.
Chitty, however, unlike Levine and Sand, was unwilling to predict how quickly the industry would react to future uncertainty. She said that Drewry expected continued contraction in rates for shipping containers but that “the volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of U.S. penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.”
