Retail, shipping, and logistics industry stakeholders are already seeing the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff program and warn of more to come.
Trump first announced a set of sweeping tariffs on 2 April that were going to hit every country with tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent. A later announcement on 9 April paused those tariffs for most countries, while raising tariffs against China to 125 percent.
Earlier in the day on 9 April Washington, D.C., U.S.A.-based National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail industry organization, sent an alert to its members stating that a major drop in import cargo levels was expected before the tariffs were paused.
According to the Global Port Tracker, a cargo level forecaster produced by the NRF and Hackett Associates which draws on historical data to make predictions, cargo levels into U.S. ports are likely to be down by 20 percent in the second half of 2025.
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold explained that “retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs.
Gold said – before the sudden pause on tariffs – that the NRF expected retailers in the U.S. “to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”
“Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other,” he added.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said that the “environment of complete uncertainty” made forecasting cargo levels difficult, but that, “at present, we expect to see imports begin to decline in May and [expect] that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”
Hackett said that he predicted U.S. imports to be down at least 20 percent year over year in the second half of 2025; when balanced against the elevated levels that U.S. ports saw earlier in the year, the total cargo volume was likely to decline by 15 or more year over year.
Analysis of ocean container bookings by FreightWaves confirmed the likelihood of these predictions. Daily bookings between China and the U.S. are down 25 percent year over year, and global bookings are down 18.4 percent between 30 March and 8 April, a 13 percent year over year decline.
Drawing its information from SONAR’s Container Atlas, which captures data at the point at which containers are booked, FreightWaves said that this “indicator suggests that the full effects of the trade dispute have yet to materialize in current shipping volumes, as the average lead time between booking and sailing stands at nine days.”
FreightWaves Strategic Analyst John Paul Hampstead said many importers temporarily halted inbound shipments to reassess their strategies in light of the many tariff announcements and the uncertainty.
“These pauses may be transient as companies work to navigate the changing economic landscape,” Hampstead said. “However, for businesses whose models rely heavily on specific goods targeted by the Trump administration’s tariffs, the effects could be more enduring.”
