Experts are predicting that the United States’ major container ports will see a decline in import levels for the first time in a monthly period since 2023.
In a recent edition of the Global Port Tracker, produced by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, industry analysts said that U.S. imports are expected to be down each month from May through September and that the overall volume for the year was also trending downward.
"We are starting to see the true impact of the tariffs on the supply chain," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
Though the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily cut down the highest set of tariffs on 12 May, many of the U.S.'s tariff plans are shaping how businesses strategize.
Additionally, Gold suggested that policy volatility could challenge an industry where orders are placed months in advance. Small retailers, he said, are particularly “concerned about what to expect in the coming months and how to order for the future.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said that he was seeing changed behavior in the shipping sector, too.
“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” Hackett said.
But, Hackett said, the supply chain is not “broken,” and reports of empty ports are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.”
