Considering the U.S.’s launch of a global trade war and U.S. President Donald Trump’s disdain for international collaboration, experts are warning that the U.S. may soon leave the World Trade Organization (WTO), a move that could render trade rules unenforceable among developing economies and throw global trade further into chaos.
“We should not preclude a prospect where the U.S. will leave the WTO in the coming 18 months,” said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, the director of the European Center for International Political Economy (ECIPE) and a former Swedish trade expert in WTO affairs. “On one hand, the U.S. outside of the system is a much better option than China being expelled and unhinged outside the system. On the other hand, the U.S. trade deficit is financing a lot of export-led growth around the world. Without that market access underwriting WTO rules, there would be no incentives for compliance among emerging markets.”
A breakdown of WTO discipline would endanger various agreements meant to regulate the global seafood supply chain, including a 2022 deal limiting harmful fishery subsidies which negotiators have been trying to improve upon with a follow-up agreement. Those talks have currently been parked while trade diplomats grapple with the consequences of Trump’s tariffs.
In relation to the tariffs, China recently filed a WTO complaint against the U.S., while Canada similarly launched a dispute against China over additional duties on agricultural and fishery products.
It’s not clear whether the disputes will be heard by the governing body...
