A new long-term analysis by data firm Kontali is projecting the salmon industry is poised to have a “turnaround” and see big increases in production over the next several years.
The new long-term analysis by the company projects salmon production will increase by 27 percent by 2030 and as much as 40 percent by 2033. The company said enhancements in fish health, strategic investments, and an increase in land-based production will all contribute to the improvement.
"The projected 27 percent growth in global salmon production by 2030 marks a pivotal moment for the industry,” Kontali Senior Financial Analyst Filip Szczesny said. “Investments in fish health and land-based production are key drivers, but overcoming regulatory and environmental challenges will be crucial to realizing this potential."
The new long-term forecast said regulatory limits, along with environmental regulations, are the biggest challenges to growth in the salmon industry.
The forecast mirrored comments made by Kontali Chief Analyst Ragnar Nystoyl, who revealed the data firm’s predictions for 2025 recently at the Global Seafood Alliance’s Responsible Seafood Summit in St. Andrews, Scotland.
“I would highlight that regulatory capacity, or capacity for farming granted on the licensing side, is becoming more scarce,” Nystoyl said.
The forecast by Kontali also said climate change will be a major challenge as weather and temperature shifts bring new issues for salmon farmers.
Despite those headwinds, the data firm is projecting global salmon production will surpass 4 million metric tons (MT) by 2029 and continue to increase beyond that through 2023. Europe will lead the growth by increasing production by roughly 25 percent, while the Americas will increase by around 11 percent. Australia and New Zealand will see 17 percent growth in salmon production, and Asia will see more gradual expansion as land-based and offshore projects come online, “though large-scale production is yet to be fully realized,” Kontali said.
The prediction said ...
