Financial services firm Moody’s Ratings has predicted declines for the U.S. port sector in its recently released 2026 outlook.
“The 2026 outlook for the U.S. ports sector remains negative given the adverse effect of tariffs and policy uncertainty and as U.S. real GDP growth slows and consumer spending moderates,” Moody’s Ratings Assistant Vice President David Kamran said in the update.
The biggest challenge facing U.S. ports, Moody’s said, was uncertainty around tariffs, which are currently averaging around 17 percent. As businesses pass these costs onto consumers, a decline in spending is expected in 2026, according to the firm. Negotiations with various foreign trading partners, including China, remain ongoing, and tariffs could also be affected next year by an upcoming Supreme Court decision.
Other threats to the port industry listed by Moody’s include slow GDP growth, low retail demand, and cybersecurity threats, which have recently caused interruptions at ports in Japan and Australia.
Moody’s said that the outlook could shift to stability or positivity if trade policies stabilize or cargo volumes grow above 3 percent.
