Seafood is on the cusp of overtaking poultry as the top contributor to global protein supply growth, according to a new report from Dutch financial services firm Rabobank.
The report, titled “Global Animal Protein Outlook 2025,” anticipates that seafood will take over the top spot in 2025 despite uncertainties generated by global macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes that will mark this year as a “pivotal moment” for trade and production across various regions and commodities.
Overall production of protein worldwide is set to grow slightly faster this year than in 2024, with almost 6 million metric tons (MT) of additional animal protein estimated to head to market compared to the previous year.
Aquaculture, wild-caught seafood, and poultry will largely drive that growth, according to RaboResearch Senior Analyst of Animal Protein Angus Gidley-Baird, who added that growth in beef production is likely to contract.
Specifically, the report projects that together, aquaculture and wild-caught production will grow by 2.3 percent year over year, adding around 5 million MT of additional protein and reversing 2024’s 0.3 percent decline in the categories.
At the same time, Rabobank estimates poultry will continue to steadily grow, adding an additional 2 million MT to global output, while pork production will be up marginally at just 0.1 percent after enjoying significant growth from 2021 to 2023.
Beef production, according to Rabobank, will decline due to contractions in major regions.
Within the seafood category, the global salmon market is forecast to grow 3.5 percent year over year. This comes off the back of an estimated 1 percent to 2 percent rise in production in 2024.
The projected higher growth, though, is dependent on improved biological conditions, with the report stating that if high sea lice pressure returns to Norwegian waters in the summer months, this could lead to increased mortality, which played out last year.
Elsewhere, coming into 2025, Chile’s salmon biomass was low, but cooler water temperatures are likely to bring improved biological conditions, lower mortality rates, and better harvest weights – resulting in projected supply growth of up to 2 percent.
Meanwhile, Rabobank forecasts that shrimp production growth will decelerate this year to a level of up to 2 percent, delivering 6 million MT total. Notably, it expects Ecuador’s harvest to grow by no more than 3 percent due to declines in consumer spending in China, which is its main market.
The outlook also states that in the United States, demand has not fully recovered but that import volumes and prices have “rebounded significantly” since January 2024, reaching their highest levels since the second half of 2022.
“Retailers are adjusting prices to reflect wholesale levels, making shrimp prices competitive at retail for the first time since 2020,” the report said.
Regarding the factors that will shape protein supply and demand this year, Rabobank suggests that anticipated policy shifts from new governments, such as proposed tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump’s new administration, could introduce protectionist measures, leading to higher trade costs.
“I was recently asked the top three things to look out for in macroeconomics over the next year. My answer was Trump, Trump, and Trump,” Rabobank Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Christian Lawrence said during the 2025 Global Seafood Market Conference in Palm Desert, California, U.S.A. “Tariffs can, in some instances, make sense and be good for an economy. For example, [former U.S. President Joe] Biden didn't remove Trump’s tariffs from his first term; he added to them. Combating subsidies with tariffs can make sense in some instances. I don't think there will be a broad, sweeping tariff on absolutely everything. Broad-based tariffs would absolutely have a negative impact on the economy. I think things will be more nuanced.”
The protein report also highlights that while inflationary pressures have been easing around the world, these types of policy decisions could reverse some of those trends, potentially weakening consumer demand if incomes don’t rise in line with inflation.
The report also emphasized livestock diseases and shifting sustainability requirements as factors that could affect output, but the expectation is that emerging, data-based technologies will bring new solutions that tackle these risks.
