The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) and NOAA Fisheries are forecasting a near average pink salmon harvest in Southeast Alaska next year, with similar numbers to the last two seasons.
The official forecast predicts a harvest of 19 million fish, which would be at the low end of what the department considers an average harvest, and slightly below what commercial fishers harvested in the 2025 season.
The forecast is primarily based on data collected by the Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project, which conducts annual surface trawl surveys in June and July in the northern inside waters of Southeast Alaska. Researchers have found that the number of juvenile pink salmon detected in those surveys is highly correlated with the adult harvest the following year.
“Juvenile pink salmon abundance measured in northern inside waters during summer 2025 was near the middle of the long-term range, which suggests a moderate number of adults returning in 2026,” ADF&G noted in its forecast. “While salmon returns can vary due to changing ocean conditions, this forecast reflects the best available information from long-term National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories and Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) monitoring programs.”
If the 2026 harvest does come in at 19 million fish, it would be just shy of the 20,667,754 pink salmon caught in 2025, according to preliminary data from ADF&G. According to the department, commercial fishers were able to collect an average of USD 0.25 (EUR 0.22) per pound for their harvest, resulting in an exvessel value of USD 16,872,009 (EUR 14,639,430) for the season.
Though pink salmon is the most caught salmon species in Southeast Alaska, it’s not the region’s biggest money-maker. In 2025, commercial fishers landed just 12,709,819 chum salmon, but the fish’s bigger size results in far more value generation. Whereas pink salmon were 3.2 pounds on average, chum salmon averaged a weight of 6.7 pounds each. They also sold for an average price of USD 0.66 (EUR 0.57) per pound, resulting in an exvessel value of USD 56,382,853 (EUR 48,922,410). Chum salmon sales made up more than half of the value of the Southeast Alaska salmon fisheries in 2025.
