Russian fishery scientists at the Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO) have proposed a Barents Sea 2026 cod quota of 315,033 metric tons (MT) – an increase over the quota set for 2025.
This comes after a joint effort by the Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group released its findings on Barents Sea cod earlier this year, determining that the total allowable catch (TAC) should be no more than 269,550 MT. That amount is a 14 percent cut from the quota advice made in 2025 and would be the lowest TAC since 2002.
However, the Russian Federal Agency for Fisheries (Rosrybolovstvo) said in a release that new calculations made by VNIRO used different calculations, citing a lack of full surveys on the eastern part of the Barents Sea due to poor weather, which it said had a risk of underestimating stocks.
“In addition, scientists noted an insufficient amount of data to determine the size and age composition of cod and haddock from commercial catches, which increases uncertainty,” Rosrybolovstvo said. “All this reduced the quality of the stock assessment, and, accordingly, the TAC forecast for 2026.”
According to VNIRO scientists, the spawning stock biomass projections for 2026 are slightly higher than they were for 2025, which runs counter to the cuts to the TAC put forward earlier this year.
“The decline in cod stocks, which continued over the past few years, has stopped,” Rosrybolovstvo said. “Moreover, data has appeared according to which an increase in cod stocks is projected in the coming years.”
As a result, VNIRO is pushing for a slightly higher quota of 315,033 MT in 2026 – up from the 311,587 MT recommendation the Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group suggested for 2025.
Another group countering VNIRO claims, the Norway Institute of Marine Research, has suggested that recruitment in the cod stock has actually been below average. It also said that the outlook for the future of the stock has changed relatively little. However, it did also say that the stock was going to begin trending positive again, but it placed that date in 2027.
The final decision on the cod quota will be made this fall.
