In Japan, salmon is sold as salted and unsalted. Salted is retailed as bone-in half-steaks used for grilled salmon, a popular breakfast dish. Russian product currently dominates this market, because of last year’s strong harvest.
But Russia has announced a 45 percent reduction to its 2012 salmon harvest, to just 275,000 metric tons. In addition, the Russian government allows Japanese vessels to catch salmon and trout inside Russia’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone around the disputed Kurile Islands. This year, the amount will be 7,071 metric tons, a 27 percent increase.
Russian pinks and chums, which make their way to China for reprocessing via bonded warehouses in South Korea, will total 170,000 metric tons and 70,000 metric tons, respectively.
Alaska will have a strong harvest of chums, with an increase of 2.1 million fish, to 19.1 million. But pinks will decline sharply to just 70.2 million fish this year from 116.1 million in 2011. Alaska chinooks will also be sharply down, but the coho harvest will climb by 800,000 fish and 2.1 million fish. Sockeye is down only slightly.
Sockeye is favored for salting in Japan for its deep red color. Russia exports about 25,000 metric tons of sockeye to Japan annually, most of it caught off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Alaska produces 75 percent of the world’s sockeye and is the other major supplier to Japan. Marubeni Corp., which in December upped its U.S. sockeye processing capacity with the purchase of the Naknek-based Red Salmon Cannery, has the highest market share of sockeye in the Japanese market.
Fresh salmon in Japan is usually sold as boneless fillet slices. And, among imports from top-supplier Chile, steelhead, called “trout-salmon” in Japan, has been selling well. Steelhead is not affected by infectious salmon anemia and has helped Chile to maintain supply to Japan.
Total Chilean production this year is expected to be as high as 700,000 metric tons, with 200,000 metric tons of coho, which are also immune, and 150,000 metric tons of steelhead. Chilean coho prices in Japan shot up from JPY 650 to 700 per kilogram just after the earthquake as the Tohoku fleet was decimated. But this year’s catch in the area has returned to 65 percent of pre-quake levels and the wholesale price for Chilean coho has fallen to JPY 500 per kilogram.
With rapid weight gains in Norwegian Atlantic salmon stocks due to a mild winter, a glut is likely in farmed product. Norway is facing headwinds in many of its markets. Russia has imposed stricter inspection requirements, and although the European Union lifted a 25 percent antidumping duty in February, fiscal austerity may depress demand there. Efforts to sell to China are hampered by political tensions caused by the 2010 Norwegian Nobel committee awarding a Peace Prize to imprisoned dissident Liu Xiaobo.
Success for New Zealand in Japan has been mainly in lox. Marlborough Sound-based NZ King Salmon has secured contracts with two Japanese central buying organizations that supply supermarkets. They currently sell 800 metric tons, but look to triple that in three years. They are now lobbying to expand operations to Nelson at the north end of the South Island.
