A slower-than-expected Alaska sockeye season put a dent in the plans of the region’s fishermen and processors, but not enough to ruin the year.
A low sockeye catch in Bristol Bay — traditionally the area that produces the vast majority of Alaska's sockeye — forced producers to scramble to amend their sales and marketing plans when the run didn't materialize as forecast. Through 2 September, just under 22.2 million sockeye had been caught in Bristol Bay — but the run was projected for 28.5 million, a drop of 22.1 percent from the preseason forecast.
“The shortfall against projection in Bristol Bay was disappointing,” said an executive with one Seattle-based processor. “Historically, it was still pretty strong, but it was definitely below what we had planned for. And there's not much you can do with Bristol Bay to adapt. Because it's so remote and [the season so] compressed, it's difficult to respond in season. They came up a little bit shorter than we planned for, which means we ramped up our plant for more throughput than we got.”
Since Bristol Bay accounts for so much of the sockeye production — just under two-thirds of the 2011 sockeye forecast was projected to be caught in the region — there's no way to make up for a shortfall there, the processing exec said, although some areas such as Prince William Sound, Cook Inlet and Chignik exceeded preseason projections. “It wasn’t terrible, but it would have been good to have more fish in Bristol Bay,” he said.
Prices for Alaska sockeye were stable relative to 2010, says a buyer for one major national supermarket chain, with off-the-boat prices for H&G fish running from the high-USD 2s to the low-USD 3s in Anchorage. “Prices for frozen were pretty close to where they were last year, a little bit better,” he said, adding he didn’t feel any impact from the lower catch numbers.
“It seemed to be very good. We seemed to get what we wanted, when we needed it, so it worked out quite well for us. We seemed to be positioned in the right places,” he said. “If there was any change it wasn't so dramatic that I noticed it. I think it was pretty close to what last year was.”
As for prices in the stores, he said the chain has to be very competitive on price to woo consumers who are paying more for almost everything they buy and remain very sensitive to price. “They have to be very competitive to where they were last year. It's really competitive out there as far as the salmon seafood market and we do our best to match or beat the competition,” said the buyer. “Everything is going up. It's been a real tough slog lately.”
An executive at one national seafood restaurant chain found more sockeye available this season, and at better prices, than he did in 2010. “Prices started a little high in May, but once more openings occurred they came down and stayed down throughout the summer,” he said.
The chain bought mostly H&G fish, and fillets, and ran various preparations, including appetizers and special entrées. “With the low cost and availability, we even used it on some banquet menus and for prix fixe menus,” he said.
Sockeye wasn’t the only Alaska salmon to fall short of projections. The processing executive says it was a down year for pinks and chums, as well, with chums coming in at about 70 percent of 2011 projections and pinks at about 86 percent, according to the latest report numbers.
“Pinks were also below projection. They came in really strong in the Southeast, particularly the northern part, but they didn't come in strong anywhere else,” said the processing executive. “That's going to be a problem. One of the things you might want to watch for over the next few months is how the incredibly strong Russian catch plays into that. They had a tremendous year.
“Coho is not a very big fishery. The sockeye and the pinks typically make the season. The chums also were awfully disappointing; they came the most off the number. Chums were a pretty big drop; they came in below last year and the five-year average.”
