The next big thing?

Predicting the next big thing goes on in every industry, and seafood is no exception. If you’re trying to pick a short-term winner, the safe bet is to assume that next year will look pretty much like this year.

However, picking a long-term winner requires a much closer look at driving factors such as technological, social change and price. History books show that before railways and refrigeration, few people living inland ate fresh seafish. The fish portion of their diet would have been salt herring, salt cod, live oysters and freshwater fish. Before trawling was developed, few people knew what a scallop or sole tasted like, and until technology permitted deep-sea fishing, no one ate orange roughy or Patagonian toothfish.

Changes in our seafood diet have been brought about by changes in preservation methods. Canned tuna is now found in every convenience store, whereas a traditional salted herring or a bloater can be found only at a specialist supplier. Without the development of frozen-at-sea fillets, the majority of fish-and-chip shops would have to operate in a different way.  Similarly, if ultra-fast freezing technology wasn’t available to provide top-grade tuna, then sushi outlets would have very different menus.

One of the biggest changes to our seafood intake has been brought about by aquaculture technology. Salmon, bass, bream and trout have completely changed the look of the average wet-fish counter in Europe and North America. Just two decades ago, consumers would have come across tilapia and pangasius only on a tropical holiday, but today they are a mainstay of the freezer cabinet.

It is not just technology developments that drive changes in our seafood purchases — social forces such as fashion, lifestyle changes and environmental advocacy all play a part. For example, if you had told the average UK consumer in 1974 that we would soon be consuming tens of thousands of tonnes of sustainable New Zealand hoki and Alaska pollock, they would not have known what you were talking about. At that time in the UK, there were no McDonald’s, no Filet-O-Fish and no Marine Stewardship Council certification. Today these are ubiquitous, and the increase in popularity of no-fuss fast food means that consumers demand fish with no bones and no skin. This is why large, white-fleshed, easily filleted round fish win out over small flatfish and bony pelagics every time.  

So what are the drivers for the future? It is clear that the overriding change over the next 20 years will be a huge increase in demand for all types of seafood. This will come partly from population growth, but also from the increasing purchasing power of populations in parts of the world where fish is highly valued, particularly Asia. 

If Europe and North America want to carry on eating seafood, then they will have to produce more of their own and retain more of what they currently export. Some growth of supplies will eventually come from better management of existing wild stocks, but few analysts predict that this growth will be enough to meet demand. It is therefore clear that increases in supply will have to come from aquaculture.

But what type of aquaculture, and what species? The ideal aquaculture subject needs to be disease resistant, temperature tolerant, fast growing, stocked at high densities, high in omega-3s and not reliant on fishmeal diets. Bivalve molluscs fit this bill well and quantities can easily be increased, but perhaps by 2030 we will also be eating salmon fed entirely on seaweed meals, or we will have developed low temperature varieties of tilapia and pangasius. My own prediction is that we will see something completely new to aquaculture, such as an air-breathing vegetarian giant from Amazonia or perhaps the humble octopus.

What do SeafoodSource readers think? Please e-mail your thoughts to [email protected].

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