Inflation on grocery prices led to drops in seafood sales at U.S. retail stores in October.
Frozen seafood prices increased 5.3 percent year over year in October, contributing to sales declines of 2.7 percent by value to USD 723 million (EUR 624 million) and 7.6 percent by volume, according to new data from market research firm Circana analyzed by Lakeland, Florida, U.S.A.-based 210 Analytics.
Two major species in the frozen category, shrimp and salmon, realized price increases of 9.2 percent and 7.1 percent on average, respectively, in the month.
Largely due to the heavy price spikes, frozen meat and poultry overtook frozen seafood in October sales by value, widening the gap between the two categories to more than USD 100 million (EUR 86 million), 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink said.
Shelf-stable seafood prices, meanwhile, increased 5.4 percent in October, leading to a 2.3 percent drop in sales by value to USD 329.5 million (EUR 284 million) and 4.5 percent by volume.
The sub-category had an “off month,” Roerink said, potentially related to the U.S. federal government shutdown that put funding for food-purchasing programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in jeopardy. She also said that a major snowstorm in October 2024 that affected many parts of the Western U.S. with snow and record-breaking rainfall and flooding may also have swayed year-over-year comparisons.
“Canned products are often a stock-up item when weather is moving in,” Roerink said.
This October, tuna in cans and pouches in particular experienced “substantial declines” in sales by value and volume, according to Roerink, who said sales by value dropped 6.2 percent and 8.9 percent by volume.
Fresh seafood, while not realizing large gains, performed relatively well in comparison to other categories in October.
Fresh seafood prices rose 3.2 percent in the month, and sales by value increased 1.3 percent to USD 754.4 million (EUR 651 million); sales by volume declined by 0.6 percent.
Fresh finfish sales increased 3.6 percent by value. By species, fresh salmon sales climbed 3.3 percent by value and 1.2 percent by volume. Fresh tilapia and trout also realized strong sales, with sales by value climbing 14.6 percent for tilapia and 16.3 percent for trout.
“Driven by strong salmon sales, fresh seafood dollar sales exceeded year-ago levels and only had a small decline in pounds,” Roerink noted.
Fresh shrimp sales by value also increased 7.2 percent, while sales by volume increased 6.6 percent.
Other parts of the fresh seafood aisle had a tougher month, though, as fresh shellfish sales declined 3.5 percent by value and nearly 5 percent by volume. Fresh crab sales in particular slid 12.8 percent by value and nearly 27 percent by volume due to price increases of 19.3 percent on average.
It was not just seafood that realized increased prices in October as the price per unit across all foods and beverages rose 2.2 percent, per Circana.
“Most categories showed modest price growth, while categories like chocolate, coffee, and meat experienced sharper increases,” Roerink said.
Looking forward to the upcoming holidays, due to concerns about tariffs, 61 percent of Americans expect impacts on their Thanksgiving plans, according to research firm Numerator, including 22 percent who expect their shopping to change “quite a bit” or “completely” due to the impacts of tariffs.
Still, 54 percent of shoppers said they plan to spend the same as last year on Thanksgiving, while 29 percent say they plan to spend more. Thirty-two percent of shoppers say they will spend between USD 100 (EUR 86) and USD 199 (EUR 172) on their Thanksgiving items, while 49 percent of shoppers say they will spend USD 99 (EUR 85) or less.
Over 70 percent of shoppers plan to buy their Thanksgiving items at grocery stores, followed by big box stores like Walmart or Costco (54 percent), according to Numerator.
Nearly half (47 percent) of consumers plan to host or attend a Thanksgiving meal/celebration with family or friends, and 27 percent plan to prepare a special meal just for themselves/their households, according to Circana.
Projections for retail sales during the larger holiday season, which encompasses Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve, are positive, with recent estimations calling for record spending of between USD 1.1 trillion (EUR 950 million) and USD 1.2 trillion (EUR 1 trillion).
