U.S. retail seafood sales rose slightly by both value and volume in November as consumer purchases increased across all categories, according to new Circana data.
Continuing a turnaround that began in September, the sales value of seafood in November “hit the growth trifecta” with gains realized for fresh, frozen, and shelf-stable seafood, according to Anne-Marie Roerink, the principal of 210 Analytics, which analyzes Circana data.
There were also gains in sales by volume for frozen and shelf-stable seafood, she said, adding that during the month, overall grocery sales also increased and a bump in sales value during Thanksgiving week bodes well for seafood sales for the end-of-December holidays.
Fresh seafood sales by value increased 1.2 percent to USD 593 million (EUR 564 million) in November, while volume stayed relatively steady, declining 0.1 percent. Frozen seafood sales by value increased 0.2 percent to USD 552 million (EUR 525 million), while volume increased by 2.3 percent.
Following a trend realized throughout the year due to consumers’ economic concerns, shelf-stable seafood continued its upward trajectory. Its sales value rose 2.5 percent to USD 226 million (EUR 215 million), while volume increased by 6.4 percent.
These gains occurred while food inflation rose 2.4 percent in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index, while Circana found that fresh food inflation increased 2.7 percent and prices across all foods and beverages rose 1.9 percent in November.
“While prices are looking better for the consumer, the average price per pound [of seafood] remained significantly higher than the average price per pound for the three biggest animal proteins,” Roerink said, referring to the average price per pound of fresh seafood at USD 9.71 (EUR 9.24) per pound, compared to USD 3.13 (EUR 2.98) per pound for chicken, USD 3.17 (EUR 3.02) per pound for pork, and USD 6.77 (EUR 6.44) per pound for beef.
While the prices of many fresh species have been declining in price in recent months, fresh salmon prices rose 1.3 percent; fresh crab prices also increased 2.3 percent, according to Circana. As a result, fresh salmon sales by value rose by 1.3 percent as sales volume stayed flat. Shrimp sales by value also increased by 3.2 percent, and volume increased 2.7 percent.
According to Circana data, fresh trout and catfish performed well in November, with trout sales by value rising 6.9 percent and sales volumes rising 12.3 percent. Catfish sales values also increased, rising 7 percent, and volumes increased by roughly 8 percent.
Cod, which has been more favorably priced in recent months, saw a price hike of nearly 4 percent in November, which contributed to a 2 percent increase in sales value and a 1.6 percent decrease in sales volume.
In contrast to the inflation in fresh seafood, frozen salmon prices decreased 2.9 percent and frozen shrimp prices fell 3.5 percent. Frozen salmon sales volumes increased 3.5 percent as prices dropped, which increased sales values by 0.6 percent. Frozen shrimp sales volumes also increased by 2.2 percent, but the increase wasn’t enough to offset the price drop and sales values decreased 1.3 percent.
Other notable increases for frozen seafood included cod, which saw an 8 percent sales value increase, and pollock, which realized a 5.3 percent increase in sales value and a 3.7 percent increase in volume.
Based on November seafood sales, analysts said seafood is likely to perform well at U.S. retail during the holiday season at the end of December. Overall food and beverage sales increased 12.4 percent for the week of Thanksgiving this year versus the same period of 2023 and increased 3.7 percent for the month of November overall, according to Roerink.
“Thanksgiving grocery sales exceeded the records of 2023, which is promising for the largest holiday of the year for grocery retailing, which is Christmas,” Roerink said.
This holiday season, Roerink said she expects to see more of the same “optimistic patterns we have seen since September, with shrimp sales back in growth territory and solid salmon numbers in refrigerated and frozen,” she said.
“Consumers will use seafood to elevate home entertaining meals as consumers are recreating restaurant meals at home,” Circana Vice President of Perimeter Melissa Rodriguez told SeafoodSource.
Over 40 percent of consumers frequently recreate meals at home, according to Circana’s consumer survey.
Additionally, seafood items typically see a boost during the holiday season, when many shoppers are willing to spend extra on food and beverages, Roerink told SeafoodSource in November. For Christmas and New Year’s entertaining, high-income households and millennials will likely purchase more seafood.
“We’re seeing the more premium and entertaining-focused items do well,” she said. “This includes salmon but also items like lobster, crab, and oysters.”
