US online grocery sales expected to hit USD 120 billion by 2028, with Walmart emerging as dominant player

“Even though inflation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative effect continues to drive a flight-to-value behavior"
A Walmart employee loading groceries into a customer's car
A Walmart employee loading groceries into a customer's car | Photo courtesy of Walmart
6 Min

Americans are continuing to buy more of their groceries online, with a recent study expecting that trend to grow exponentially over the next five years.

E-commerce grocery sales in the U.S. are projected to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.5 percent – more than three times faster than the 1.3 percent rate expected for in-store sales over the next five years, according to “U.S. eGrocery Sales Forecast: 2024-28,” a new report compiled by retail data site Brick Meets Click.

On the back of that projected growth, total online grocery sales, which include delivery, pick-up, and ship-to-home segments, are projected to reach nearly USD 120 billion (EUR 112 billion) in the U.S. annually by the end of 2028 and account for 12.7 percent of total U.S. grocery sales.

Walmart in particular is emerging as a force in the e-commerce grocery space. The retailer has expanded its online grocery market share by 620 basis points since 2021, ending 2023 by accounting for 45.4 percent of all online grocery sales in the U.S., according to Brick Meets Click.

Though total U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to soar, Brick Meets Click forecasts overall U.S. grocery sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6 percent through 2028, considerably slower than the 5.6 percent posted over the five years ending in 2023. 

Brick Meets Click attributed the large growth over the past five years mainly to the pandemic and inflation, both of which led people to shop more for groceries rather than go out to eat.

“Even though inflation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative effect continues to drive a flight-to-value behavior in grocery shopping and that will slow topline sales growth,” Brick Meets Click Partner David Bishop said.

As inflation remains a pesky issue, grocers across the country are instituting measures to help consumers save.

Landover, Maryland, U.S.A.-based supermarket chain Giant Food, a subsidiary of multinational retail company Ahold Delhaize, has lowered prices on hundreds of items within its private-brand selection, including many seafood products.

Giant Food, which operates 164 supermarkets in the U.S. states of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, as well as in Washington, D.C., said the lower prices apply to products in its Giant, Nature’s Promise, Taste of Inspirations, Smart Living, Always My Baby, Companion, and CareOne brand lines.

In tandem with the move, Giant expanded its Flexible Rewards loyalty program, enabling customers to earn two times the loyalty points for every dollar spent on over 12,000 of its private-brand products. The items range from consumer staples such as bread and milk to various fresh products across its meat, seafood, and produce departments.

“We know customers are looking for value and savings at the grocery store. We have always offered great savings to our customers,” Giant Communications and Community Relations Manager Jon Arons told SeafoodSource. “With our new program, we aim to introduce more shoppers to our lower-cost store-brand items, which deliver the same quality as national brands and provide the value customers are looking for.”

The majority of Giant’s fresh, frozen, and shelf-stable seafood products are already private-brand items and apply to the price reductions, Arons said.

“All Giant and Nature’s Promise fresh and frozen seafood is sustainably sourced and delivered daily. We carry the majority of Giant and Nature’s Promise items to provide everyday low prices on high-quality products,” he said. “We only sell seafood from fisheries and farms that are well-managed to ensure fish populations remain healthy and fishing and farming methods have a minimal environmental and social impact.”

The initiatives implemented by Giant follow similar moves by other grocers.

Jacksonville, Florida, U.S.A.-based Southeastern Grocers, which operates more than 400 Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores in the U.S. Southeast, implemented a spring season price-hold program in March. Southeastern Grocers, which Aldi US purchased in a deal that closed 7 March 2024, said the program offers seasonal price reductions on more than 1,000 frequently purchased products, including seafood. The grocer is offering discounts on cod, fish sticks, crab cakes, flounder, and other products, Southeastern Grocers Senior Director of Communications and Community Meredith Hurley told SeafoodSource.

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