Two things are certain about the shrimp market: Early mortality syndrome is decimating production in Thailand and the countervailing duties (CVD) complaint will lead to tariffs against the largest foreign producers. What is uncertain is what will happen to prices.

EMS will cause a 30 to 35 percent drop in shrimp exports from Thailand to the United States this year, or a decline of between 120 million and 130 million pounds, says a top executive at a large shrimp importer. Despite that, and desp…