With the Alaska salmon season underway, one supermarket chain buyer says not to expect too much change from what happened last year, especially in the sockeye market. The wild card that could change that equation is Canada, where estimates vary wildly for how much sockeye will be coming through in the next few months.
The supply of Copper River sockeye has been steady since the season kicked off in mid-May, while prices have been falling slightly with every new opening and no great variations that would cause a big impact on sales, the buyer said.
“We are not expecting any major changes on sockeye catch and or prices out of Alaska this season,” the buyer said. The commercial catch for sockeye in Bristol Bay is estimated 16.9 million fish, up from 15.5 million fish last year.
The big variable is Canada: Catch estimates for British Columbia’s Fraser River run the gamut of anything from as low as seven million to fish to as much as 75 million fish. “Crazy spread,” the buyer said. “Predictions are high but time will tell.”
Depending on where the Canada catch actually lands, more or less fish could create issues with production space in late summer. “I don't necessarily think price will be that aggressive as there is a huge market for this fish,” the buyer said. “We might get pockets for a short period of time to push fresh sales,” and this should lead to chances to run fresh promotions “as long as the fish can get processed.”
Prices for whole fresh troll-caught kings in early June were in the mid-USD 7 (EUR 5.17) to USD 8 (EUR 5.91) range, depending on size, while the first fish out of the Copper River were fetching USD 16 (EUR 11.82) a pound before coming down with each new opening. Wild frozen, gillnet-caught H&G sockeyes were selling for USD 4 (EUR 2.96) to USD 4.60 (EUR 3.40), f.o.b. Seattle, with higher prices for the larger sizes. Wild frozen C-trim chum fillets and portions were in the upper-USD 2s (EUR 1.48) to USD 3 (EUR 2.22) per pound for 1,000-pound minimum orders.
“Chum and pink prices are up from last year as frozen inventory is non-existent and demand is there,” the buyer said. “Fresh will need to reflect the frozen market to be able to secure product.”
With the season started some big buyers are getting into substantive talks with suppliers for their major purchases of the year. The CEO of one giant North American seafood company says the issue is not so much price as it is securing enough product to keep its customers’ coolers stocked with fish for the next year. “We make long-term commitments that get us and our customers through the year and those negotiations are under way right now,” the CEO said.
How much the company pays for its salmon will depend on market conditions. “If there’s not much salmon around we have to pay up,” the CEO said. “If there is then we have leverage.” As for demand, “it’s definitely there.”
Demand remains strong, especially for pinks and especially for retailers, although the CEO said he’s selling some to his foodservice customers as well.
“We do skinless, boneless, portion-controlled and we add some value to it, so for us it’s a raw material but it’s a nice raw material and it’s affordable,” he said. “It certainly fits for retail and certain foodservice customers, but some foodservice if they’re into wild they would rather buy a king or a farmed Atlantic. But for certain customers pink works well.”
