Price of salmon drops, expected to continue to fall

Published on
July 19, 2022
Fresh whole Atlantic salmon sitting on ice in a marketplace.

The price of salmon has dropped significantly in the past few weeks, breaking months of record-high prices.

Salmon prices in 2022 have soared, with the average price for both fresh and frozen salmon sitting much higher than normal. At the beginning of 2022, fresh Norwegian salmon was NOK 68.38 (USD 6.77, EUR 6.68) per kilogram, while prices for frozen salmon was NOK 59.02 (USD 5.86 EUR 5.78), according to figures published by Statistics Norway. Prices remained high in May, with fresh salmon hitting a peak of NOK 108.21 (USD 10.72 EUR 10.57) per kilogram.

Since that time, salmon has maintained a consistently high price, but recent data on the NASDAQ Salmon Index indicates the price is beginning to drop, and the 12-week average indicates the price has fallen by 12 percent.

Currently, the NASDAQ Salmon Index has the price-per-kilogram at NOK 95.73 (USD 9.84, EUR 9.35), while Statistics Norway has the price of fresh salmon at NOK 90.29 (USD 8.94, EUR 8.82) per kilogram and the price of frozen salmon at NOK 101.63 (USD10.07, EUR 9.92) per kilogram.

While still high, Fish Pool – a marketplace for buying and selling financial salmon contracts – is predicting that price will continue to fall in July, August, and September. It is currently predicting that prices will drop to NOK 89.00 (USD 8.81, EUR 8.69) by the end of July, and decline as far as NOK 76.20 (USD 7.55, EUR 7.44) by September.

Price-softening for salmon in late summer and into fall is typical, Norwegian Seafood Council Seafood Analyst Paul T. Aandahl told SeafoodSource.

“Normally, in late summer the supply of salmon increases and the demand is reduced as a result of holiday time in Europe, thus there is a fall in prices,” he said. “The development we see this year follows the same pattern where export volume increases in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year.”

Data from Statistics Norway showcases this trend. Salmon exports historically have increased in August and peaked in September each year.

“On average, the export volume over the last 10 years has been about 20 percent higher in the second half of the year compared with the first half of the year,” Aandahl said. “We expect to see the same pattern occur this year. Normally, increased volume also leads to a lower price in the second half of the year.”

Predictions from Fish Pool have the price hitting its lowest level in September. Currently it is predicting the price of salmon will sit at NOK 76.20 (USD 7.66, EUR 7.49) per kilogram – a drop from the NOK 108.21 (USD 10.72 EUR 10.57) peak.

Past prices also reflect the same trend, with prices tending to drop in July, August, and September as the supply increases, according to data from Fish Pool.

“The salmon price is very volatile, but on average the price has been about 6 percent lower,” Aandahl said. “The exceptions were in 2014 and 2016, where the price was 8 and 4 percent higher, respectively, in the second half of the year.”  

Photo courtesy of OlegDoroshin/Shutterstock

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