Seafood prices at U.S. retail jumped in March, particularly among frozen and fresh products, leading to sales declines as overall consumer sentiment continues to fall.
According to market research firm 210 Analytics, frozen seafood inflation jumped 11.7 percent during the month, resulting in a 12.5 percent decline in sales by volume year over year and a 2.3 percent drop in sales by value to USD 727.9 million (EUR 617 million).
Frozen shrimp prices rose over 12 percent in March, that helped contribute to a 2.2 percent increase in sales value to USD 336.4 million (EUR 285 million). While that meant it continued to be the top species sold in the category by value, its sales by volume dropped a significant 17.7 percent. Frozen salmon was the next top species sold in the category, and though its prices rose 12.7 percent in March, its sales remained resilient, dropping only 0.8 percent by volume and rising 7.8 percent by value to USD 100.6 million (EUR 85.2 million).
Other species like frozen pollock also saw price inflation. In March, frozen pollock prices rose 3.8 percent, resulting in an 8.3 percent drop in sales by volume year over year and a 5.8 percent drop in sales by value to USD 69.1 million (EUR 58.5 million).
Meanwhile, fresh seafood prices rose 3.9 percent in March, driven by a 5.4 percent incline in finfish prices. Sales in the category fared better than frozen, rising 0.6 percent by value to USD 688.4 million (EUR 583 million), while sales by volume declined 3.2 percent.
By species, fresh salmon prices rose 5 percent year over year, but its sales remained relatively stable by both volume and value, dropping 1.8 percent by volume and rising 3.1 percent by value to USD 343.8 million (EUR 291.3 million). Bigger swings were seen in species like cod, where sales by volume dropped 26.3 percent, and sales by value dropped 12.2 percent to USD 23.1 million (EUR 19.6 million). Tilapia, trout, and lobster all saw increases in sales by both volume and value.
Prices of ambient seafood rose 10.2 percent in the month, but it still turned in a solid month, dropping only 1.5 percent by volume and rising 11 percent by value to USD 311.7 million (EUR 264 million).
Canned and pouched tuna continued to lead the category in March, bringing in sales of USD 214.1 million (EUR 181.3 million), representing an 8 percent increase; sales by volume dropped 2 percent.
At the same time, overall U.S. inflation rose 3.3 percent in March compared to the same month in 2025, while food inflation inclined 2.7 percent, according to the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Similar to previous months, food-away-from-home inflation jumped 3.8 percent compared to last March, while food-at-home inflation rose 1.9 percent.
According to 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink, the U.S. war with Iran has pushed up energy, shipping/transportation, and fertilizer costs, affecting all links of the supply chain.
Additionally, due to higher gas prices brought on by the war, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, marking the lowest level since December 2025, per Roerink. That level plummeted even further in April, reaching 47.6, a record low.
“If history is any guide, higher gas prices tend to benefit some retail formats while putting pressure on others,” Roerink told SeafoodSource. “While there’s a common perception that convenience stores gain when gas prices rise, we typically see the opposite. For most consumers, fuel is a fixed cost, which leaves less room in the budget for food and beverages at convenience stores.”
Instead, consumers typically shift toward more value-oriented trips at mass, club, and traditional grocery stores, she explained.
“At the same time, elevated gas prices often lead to fewer overall shopping trips. That stands in contrast to the trip growth we’ve seen in recent years, driven by promotions and a consumer focus on managing food waste through smaller, more frequent purchases,” Roerink said.
Despite the impact of overall inflation and higher gas prices, total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, rose 6.59 percent unadjusted year over year in March, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, while grocery and beverage stores sales also inclined 3.78 percent.
“Retail sales grew for a sixth consecutive month in March as the first wave of tax refunds offset higher gas prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Despite record low consumer sentiment and the highest inflation rate in two years, consumers continued to spend on household priorities.”
Higher tax refunds may provide near-term relief, Roerink agreed, with the average refund 11 percent higher than at the same point last year, amounting to an additional USD 23 billion (EUR 19.5 billion) in Americans’ pockets compared to the same time last year.
With all of the pressures facing Americans, more consumers are preparing food at home to save money, according to Roerink.
"Restaurant meals were already becoming significantly more expensive than preparing food at home, and that gap has only widened over the past few years,” Roerink emphasized. "As a result, we’re seeing more meals shift back into the home, along with a growing range of solutions, particularly in the deli, for easy, restaurant-style options.”
One-third of U.S. consumers say they are spending less overall, according to the Numerator Consumer Sentiment Tracker. To save money, 39 percent of consumers are cooking at home, Numerator found, while the same proportion are shopping for items on sale and 38 percent of Americans are using coupons/discount codes.
