Seafood sales plummeted in February at U.S. retail stores, mainly due to the Lent and Easter seasons starting later this year compared to 2024, according to new data from retail market research firms Circana and 210 Analytics.
Frozen seafood sales value realized the greatest shortfall by category in the month, decreasing 8.5 percent year over year to USD 663 million (EUR 610 million). Sales by volume in the category, meanwhile, declined 11.7 percent.
By species, frozen pollock sales by value plummeted 19.4 percent after months of growth, while sales by volume fell 22 percent. Frozen shrimp sales value declined 7 percent, while sales by volume were down 10.2 percent. Frozen salmon sales by value decreased 9.4 percent, while sales by volume declined 0.2 percent.
Fresh seafood sales declined 4.7 percent by value to USD 663 million (EUR 610 million), while sales by volume fell 8.4 percent.
The species in fresh seafood with the biggest value drops during the month was crab, which experienced an 18 percent drop by value and a 26 percent drop by volume. Lobster dropped 11 percent by value and nearly 27 percent by volume. Cod also declined 7.9 percent by value and nearly 12 percent by volume.
While the shelf-stable category has been growing consistently over the past year, sales by value fell 6.2 percent to USD 252 million (EUR 232 million) in February; sales by volume declined 5.5 percent.
“In 2024, Lent started on 14 February, [and] this year, Lent started on 5 March. The much later start to Lent and Easter had a substantial impact on year-over-year seafood sales, which were down, as could be expected,” Anne-Marie Roerink, the principal of retail market research firm 210 Analytics, said.
Coinciding with the drop in sales, both fresh and frozen seafood prices jumped 4 percent in February. Ambient seafood prices declined by 0.7 percent.
“The increase in refrigerated seafood prices was mostly driven by frozen shellfish that experienced 6.4 percent inflation in comparison to February 2024,” Roerink said.
By species, fresh crab prices experienced one of the largest price hikes across seafood, rising 10.4 percent year over year in February, while fresh salmon – the top species in fresh seafood – experienced inflation of 3 percent.
Besides the Lenten and Easter seasons starting later this year, the sales drop was also likely due to consumers worried about inflation and tariffs who responded by cutting back on grocery spending.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures how U.S. consumers feel about the economy, personal finances, and business and buying conditions, fell to 64.7 in February, marking a decline of 9.8 percent from January and a 15.9 percent decrease from February 2024, according to Roerink.
“It represents the lowest reading since late 2023,” she said.
Over 80 percent of consumers said they are at least aware of the U.S.’s implementation of tariffs against Canada, Mexico, the E.U., and more, according to a February 210 Analytics survey, up from just 55 percent in early January.
Just under 80 percent of those consumers who are aware of the tariffs are concerned about the impact they may have on their personal financial situation.
“This includes concern over the cost of groceries, gasoline, etc. but also worries over employment impacts,” Roerink said. “We talked a lot about uncertainty during the early months of the [Covid-19] pandemic, but uncertainty is certainly a word that describes the current environment, too. There’s so much coverage, twists, and turns happening surrounding tariffs. Consumers don’t fully understand but are hyperaware of these negotiations, and their big takeaway is that it may result in continued inflation.”
Low consumer confidence is not only affecting U.S. retailers, as Americans appear to be eating less often at restaurants, too. Traffic to quick-service restaurants dropped 2.8 percent in February compared to February 2024, while average prices at those restaurants rose 3 percent, per Revenue Management Solutions.
Food-away-from-home prices also rose 3.7 percent in February, compared to 1.9 percent for the food-at-home category, according to new Consumer Price Index data.
