After a difficult 2024, Chinese whitefish processors are facing sharply rising raw material prices along with tepid export demand as the new year begins.
“U.S. sanctions on Russian seafood have had a significant impact, with prices for Norwegian cod increasing by over 70 percent and prices for Russian cod raw material rising by 65 percent,” David Jiang, the managing director at Chinese processing firm Unibond Seafood International, told SeafoodSource. “The European market is the main cod market that accepts cod from both Russian and Norwegian origin. When the Norwegian cod price increases, it will drag the Russian prices up, too.”
The situation has just gotten worse for Chinese processors seeking raw materials, according to Jiang, who added that a 25 percent cut in 2025 Barents Sea cod quotas has driven prices paid by Chinese processors to a “historically high level.”
Complicating the matter further, Chinese processors across the board have struggled to secure raw materials from their own nation’s distant-water fleet, which sends a lot of its catch to markets like the E.U. for processing instead.
Besides the struggle to secure raw materials, Jiang also said that even when processors secure enough raw materials to make shipments, they have been faced with tepid demand from the E.U. and U.S.
Due to the widespread complications, Jiang said Chinese processors and exporters are feeling less optimistic about exports in 2025, particularly with new tariffs being a major possibility under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration.
With the future of the export market looking murky, the industry is hoping domestic sales will alleviate some of the pressure.
“The availability of inexpensive Russian pollock raw materials has helped open up several market sectors in China. As a result, many export-oriented processors have been making significant efforts to develop the domestic market,” Jiang said. “This has led to increased consumption of pollock fillets and surimi within China – a trend I believe will continue, especially if new tariffs are imposed on Chinese exports to the U.S.”
Just like China’s fishing sector, which has sought help domestically but also kept the door open to emerging markets abroad, Chinese processors are keeping all possible avenues available to them as they navigate myriad difficulties, according to Jiang.
“Looking ahead to 2025, most processors are adjusting their strategies by lowering export forecasts and placing a greater focus on the domestic and broader Asian and European markets, as well as Brazil,” he said.
