Global shipping rates are rising, especially on routes between the U.S. and China, as the nations’ trade war continues and U.S. courts consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff program.
Shipping rate indexing and analysis firm Xeneta has reported a continued surge in spot rates between East Asia and the U.S., significantly driving up prices for importers.
“Right now, it seems [ocean] carriers are telling shippers to jump, and some are replying, ‘How high?’” Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said.
On 5 June, Xeneta reported that average spot rates between East Asia and the West Coast of of the U.S. amounted to USD 5,082 (EUR 4,450) per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) and mid-high average rates up to USD 6,100 (EUR 5,342) per FEU, marking an 88 percent jump.
“The 88 percent increase in mid-high spot rates … shows shippers are so concerned about getting goods moving again during the 90-day window of opportunity of lower tariffs that they are willing to pay more,” Sand said.
Average spot rates between East Asia and the East Coast of the U.S. also saw big surges, with average rates reaching USD 6,160 (EUR 5,394) per FEU and mid-high rates averaging USD 7,180 (EUR 6,287) per FEU, marking a 67 percent increase.
Sand said he did not expect the price surges to continue into mid-summer, however.
“The desperation of shippers to get supply chains moving again will ease once boxes are on the water and inventories begin to build up,” Sand said, adding that he expected rates to peak some time in June.
That is unless something unexpected occurs during U.S.-China trade talks taking place in London, U.K., as representatives of both countries met there on 9 June to resume negotiations.
McCarter & English Partner Ron Leibman, a lawyer who specializes in transportation, logistics, and supply chain management, said that importers who could afford to wait to see if the London talks produce another tariff pause would be wise to do so.
“Additional inventory holding costs might be a small price to pay for some peace of mind,” he said.
Clark Hill Senior Attorney Kelsey Christensen gave the same advice in late May.
“If companies have the next 10 days to two weeks that they can take to assess,” that would be ideal, Christensen told SeafoodSource at the time while acknowledging that “that’s a long time in a lot of supply chains.”
Sand said that in the meantime, shippers should prepare – whether through holding merchandise or rushing it through – for carriers to continue exploiting the tariff pause through high spot rates and expect to see the influence of tariff-driven anxiety in other markets around the world.
“Just the threat of tightening of capacity against a wider backdrop of fear and uncertainty due to the geopolitical situation is enough to push up spot rates,” Sand said.
Xeneta data confirmed this insight, showing that the high spot rates were not just limited to U.S.-China trade.
For instance, East Asian to North Europe rates had also gone up, averaging USD 2,352 (EUR 2,060) per FEU, while mid-high averages were up to USD 2,704 (EUR 2,368) per FEU, marking a 32 percent increase since the end of May.
East Asia to the Mediterranean also saw price increases, with averages for the route amounting to USD 3,982 (EUR 3,487) per FEU and mid-high averages of USD 4,895 (EUR 4,287) per FEU.
The Drewry World Container Index, which aggregates rates on eight major global shipping routes, also reported increases on 5 June. Though current prices are nowhere near highs seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, they remain much higher than Drewry’s reported pre-pandemic average.
As FreightWaves reported in March 2025, Drewry predicted that higher container prices were the new normal and that the industry would not see pre-pandemic rates again.
Additionally, the World Bank released a gloomy Global Economic Prospects report on 10 June, in which it argued that global economic growth was being significantly constrained by the rise of national trade barriers.
“Growth is expected to weaken to 2.3 percent in 2025, with deceleration in most economies relative to last year. This would mark the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions,” the report said.
