U.S. imports saw a slight uptick in early January over December due to the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, but continued to be down year-over-year with analysts predicting it will remain that way.
National Retail Federation’s (NRF) recently released Global Port Tracker report said trade volumes are predicted to remain low through Spring. Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the declines are in part related to “chronic uncertainty” related to U.S. tariffs that started in 2025.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said there will be a “brief bump” in imports ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but other than that things will remain in a lull throughout the start of the year.
“Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford,” Gold said. “Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
In October, NRF predicted U.S. trade volumes would decline throughout the end of 2025, as retailers had been stocked for the holiday season to shield customers from tariffs. According to a recent release from NRF, its report found U.S. ports it covers handled 2.02 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 2.3 percent from October and down 6.5 percent year over year.
NRF projected that number would decline further in December to 1.99 million TEU, down 6 percent year over year. The federation added the caveat that freight volumes were higher in 2024 due to concerns over potential port strikes, which were ultimately averted.
The report also forecasts a total of 25.4 million TEU was imported in 2025, down 0.4 percent from the 25.5 million imported in 2024.
A market update from real-time freight data company Xeneta said spot rates are up in the start of 2026 largely due to the pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush.
“It is refreshing there is still some seasonality to be found in ocean container shipping after the chaos of Red Sea conflict and U.S. tariffs disrupted the familiar ebb and flow across the world’s major trades,” Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said. “With Lunar New Year just over a month away, shippers will ramp up efforts to get goods out of the Far East before the holiday shutdown, so there will be further upward pressure on rates. The question is whether the expected increase in deployed capacity will be enough to outweigh higher demand.”
Sand also said the recent increases are “dramatic,” but that the longer-term expectation is for spot prices to go down.
