Experts from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Hackett Associates, and container price tracking service Container XChange are predicting a surge in imports and price hikes into major U.S. container ports that are likely to last at least a year, citing President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs and a possible resumption of strikes along the East and Gulf coasts as primary reasons.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigating the impact on our industry, consumers, and the nation’s economy.”
The ports analyzed by the NRF's and Hackett's joint Global Port Tracker tool, which include the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston, handled 2.25 million 20-foot equivalent (TEU) units in October, though Miami has not yet reported its final data. That was down 1.2 percent from September but up 9.3 percent year over year. The drop is likely due to the three-day East and Gulf coast port strikes that occurred in early October.
Ports have not yet reported their November numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.17 million TEUs, which would be up 14.4 percent year over year. December is forecast at 2.14 million TEUs, which would be up 14.3 percent year over year.
The forecast heading into 2025 is 2.2 million TEUs for January, which would mark a 12 percent increase year over year; February at 1.87 million TEUs, which would be down 4.1 percent, though that is reflective of the timing of Lunar New Year, which shuts down Asian factories; March at 2.17 million TEUs, which would be an increase of 12.7 percent; and April at 2.15 million TEUs, which would be up 6.6 percent.
“The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then, there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. "It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”
In terms of prices, Container XChange has reported that North American container prices spiked in the last 90 days, increasing 20 percent in the period. The Port of Long Beach saw the greatest price spikes, with average prices for containers rising by 31 percent from USD 2,594 (EUR 2,468) in October to USD 3,400 (EUR 3,235) in November.
West Coast ports have seen surges of import cargo since fall 2024 as retailers sought routes for products that did not rely on East and Gulf Coast ports that were on strike, a pattern that will likely continue as the port strike uncertainty does.
“[In order to avoid tariffs], instead of straightforward routes, businesses may rely on transhipments, rerouting through Mexico or diversifying production and assembly sites," Container xChange CEO Christine Roeloffs said. "This inefficiency requires additional capacity, much like what we saw during Red Sea diversions. Consequently, we anticipate container prices and freight rates to stay elevated, supporting demand for containers and vessel capacity.”
In a previous interview with SeafoodSource, Gold said that small businesses have the most to lose in economic environments like these. When the costs of tariffs or increased storage and shipping costs get passed on to consumers, consumer choices can squeeze small- and medium-sized businesses, he said.
“If [consumers] decide those products have become too expensive, they’re not going to buy those products. Those small- and medium-sized companies have fewer sales, which means they could potentially go out of business,” he said.
Referencing the more recent situation, Gold added that he hopes the worst-case scenario does not play out with both the tariffs and the potential resumption of a port strike.
“We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done, and avoid a strike. We also call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods,” he said.
